Overvalued Pick Of The Week
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Tesla Inc ($TSLA)
Published: June 13, 2025
Valuation Summary
| Fair Value Estimate | $52.35 |
| Current Price | $324.02 |
| Upside Potential | -83.84% |
FCF Projections
| 5-Year CAGR | 47.59% |
| Adjusted CAGR | - |
| Trendline Growth | 12.01% |
Valuation Methodology
| Discount Rate | 16% |
| Projection Growth Rate | 50.1% |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Margin of Safety | 20% |
Based on a 5-year DCF model using free cash flow projections.
Stock Insight
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is trading at a massive premium to its intrinsic value. Despite a strong 5-year FCF CAGR of 47.59%, the fair value is estimated at $52.35, compared to the current price of $324.02—an 84% downside. Even under aggressive future growth assumptions (50.1% annually for 5 years), the valuation can’t justify today’s price.
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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