Tesla, Inc.Opportunity Rank #253(TSLA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$380.85
Last updated: Mar 24, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
The intrinsic value of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is estimated at $101.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $380.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.14% long-term growth rate and an 11.88% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is estimated at $101.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $380.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.14% long-term growth rate and an 11.88% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Investment Coach
- Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
- Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
- Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Tesla, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Tesla, Inc.Consumer Cyclical
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Related Articles
Deep dives and valuation takes on TSLA.