Market Pulse59Neutral

Tesla, Inc.Opportunity Rank #234(TSLA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$411.79

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$411.79
Price
$117.22
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $93.78

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

59/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is estimated at $117.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $411.79, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.07% long-term growth rate and an 11.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is estimated at $117.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $411.79, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.07% long-term growth rate and an 11.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$117.22
-71.53% downside
20% margin of safety: $93.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.15%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
71.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 219 (200 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
163 news sentiment+5.9
23 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
5 upgrade headlines+0.5
2 legal risk-0.2
4 product recall-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

59/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA+10.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+10.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.2%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.1%
Price vs 50 EMA87 · +10.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
3M RS vs SPY39 · -2.6%
6M RS vs SPY14 · -16.2%
Distance from 52W High75 · -12.6%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Tesla, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 70% relative to its estimated fair value of $123.80, with weak fundamentals reflected in a bearish score of 41 and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a supportive and stable narrative score of 80 indicating improving sentiment, the stock's valuation and fundamental metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Tesla's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.04%5 Year CAGR: 5.96%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$26,056$23,274$26,265$22,155$21,896$19,511$9,185$3,842$4,417$4,020$1,317$1,110$913$529-$25$84-$88-$69-$42-$44$3

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Tesla, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Tesla, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

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