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Lennar CorporationOpportunity Rank #314(LEN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical

Current Price

$93.46

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$93.46

Price

$24.69

Intrinsic Value

Overvalued by 74%MOS: $19.75

Fundamental Score

11/100

Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

34/100

Broken

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Lennar Corporation (LEN) is estimated at $24.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.77%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$24.69

▼ -73.58% downside

20% margin of safety: $19.75

Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.50%Discount Rate: 9.00%

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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC

1.75%

Cost of Capital (estimated)8%

Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with.

Fundamental Details

11/100

BearishWeighted across 6 signals

DCF Discount

73.6% premium to price

FCF Yield

1.7% trailing FCF yield

ROIC vs WACC

ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)

Net Debt / FCF

4.9x net debt to FCF

Buybacks

Share count shrinking

FCF CAGR (5Y)

-29.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)

Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

34/100

Broken

Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (16th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers

Trend: Improving upConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago

Sources: 72 (60 News · 12 Analyst)

Drivers(last 30 days)

47 news sentiment-1.6

8 regulatory scrutiny+0.4

3 earnings miss-0.1

Upgrade headlines-0.1

Macro headwinds-0.1

2 analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago

AVOIDConfidence: 90%

Thesis

Lennar Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 70.8% above the estimated fair value of $27.29, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative trend, the overall financial health and valuation metrics suggest a bearish outlook.

Key Risk

The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) could improve relative to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), potentially narrowing the valuation gap.

Signals To Watch

Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction

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Historical Growth Rates

Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.50%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -23.03%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006
$405	$405	$2,575	$5,280	$3,323	$2,598	$4,264	$1,569	$1,842	$1,109	$584	-$328	-$766	-$800	-$422	-$249	$279	$421	$1,101	$445	$581

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lennar Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lennar CorporationConsumer Cyclical

Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder primarily under the Lennar brand in the United States. It operates through Homebuilding East, Homebuilding Central, Homebuilding Texas, Homebuilding West, Financial Services, Multifamily, and Lennar Other segments. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes, as well as the purchase, development, and sale of residential land; and development, construction, and management of multifamily rental properties. It also offers residential mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services for home buyers and others, as well as originates and sells securitization commercial mortgage loans. In addition, the company is involved in the fund investment activity. It primarily serves first-time, move-up, active adult, and luxury homebuyers. Lennar Corporation was founded in 1954 and is based in Miami, Florida.

Deep dives and valuation takes on LEN.