Market Pulse44Neutral

Lennar CorporationOpportunity Rank #318(LEN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$87.44

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$87.44
Price
$9.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 89%MOS: $7.69

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Lennar Corporation (LEN) is estimated at $9.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.44, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.18%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lennar Corporation (LEN) is estimated at $9.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.44, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.18%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$9.61
-89.01% downside
20% margin of safety: $7.69
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.49%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.66%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
89.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
12.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-31.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (47th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 65 (51 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
39 news sentiment+0.5
10 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
Earnings beat-0.2
Earnings miss+0.1
2 analyst downgrades-0.1
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-38.6%
Price vs 21 EMA36 · -2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA32 · -3.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA38 · -1.4%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -18.2%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -33.0%
Distance from 52W High23 · -38.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Lennar Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 76% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that lag the cost of capital. Elevated leverage and declining free cash flow growth further undermine its investment appeal.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in fundamental performance or worsening leverage could lead to further downside beyond current valuation concerns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.49%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -25.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$340$405$2,575$5,280$3,323$2,598$4,264$1,569$1,842$1,109$584-$328-$766-$800-$422-$249$279$421$1,101$445$581

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lennar Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lennar CorporationConsumer Cyclical

Lennar Corporation, an influential homebuilder in the United States, operates primarily under its widely recognized Lennar brand, alongside its various subsidiaries. The company structures its diverse business initiatives across several distinct divisions: regional homebuilding segments (East, Central, Texas, and West), a Financial Services arm, a Multifamily property development unit, and a broader "Lennar Other" category. At the heart of its operations, Lennar is deeply involved in the creation and sale of single-family homes, encompassing both attached and detached designs. Its activities also span the acquisition, development, and subsequent sale of land designated for residential use, in addition to the comprehensive development, construction, and ongoing management of rental properties in the multifamily sector. Expanding beyond physical construction, Lennar provides essential services such as residential mortgage financing, title protection, and closing services for its clientele and other interested parties. It also actively originates and divests securitized commercial mortgage loans. Furthermore, the corporation participates in strategic fund investment endeavors. Lennar's extensive customer base primarily caters to first-time purchasers, individuals seeking to upgrade their homes, active adult communities, and the luxury housing market. This enterprise, founded in 1954, is officially based in Miami, Florida.

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