Market Pulse59Neutral

Lennar CorporationOpportunity Rank #318(LEN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$87.74

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$87.74
Price
$19.26
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 78%MOS: $15.41

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

17/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Lennar Corporation (LEN) is estimated at $19.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.74, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.72%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lennar Corporation (LEN) is estimated at $19.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.74, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.72%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$19.26
-78.05% downside
20% margin of safety: $15.41
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.49%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
78.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
5.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-31.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (60th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 66 (52 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
39 news sentiment+0.1
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Margin pressure-0.0
3 earnings miss-0.0
Upgrade headlines-0.0

Trend Details

17/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA38 · -1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA17 · -4.6%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.3%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -35.9%
Distance from 52W High24 · -37.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Lennar Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 75.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite some narrative improvement, elevated leverage and poor free cash flow growth suggest caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's elevated leverage and negative spread between ROIC and WACC could worsen financial stability and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.49%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -25.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$340$405$2,575$5,280$3,323$2,598$4,264$1,569$1,842$1,109$584-$328-$766-$800-$422-$249$279$421$1,101$445$581

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lennar Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lennar CorporationConsumer Cyclical

Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder primarily under the Lennar brand in the United States. It operates through Homebuilding East, Homebuilding Central, Homebuilding Texas, Homebuilding West, Financial Services, Multifamily, and Lennar Other segments. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes, as well as the purchase, development, and sale of residential land; and development, construction, and management of multifamily rental properties. It also offers residential mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services for home buyers and others, as well as originates and sells securitization commercial mortgage loans. In addition, the company is involved in the fund investment activity. It primarily serves first-time, move-up, active adult, and luxury homebuyers. Lennar Corporation was founded in 1954 and is based in Miami, Florida.

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