Market Pulse50Neutral

Exxon Mobil CorporationOpportunity Rank #51(XOM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$161.18

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$161.18
Price
$271.39
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 68%MOS: $217.11

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is estimated at $271.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $161.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.09%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is estimated at $271.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $161.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.09%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$271.39
▲ 68.38% upside
20% margin of safety: $217.11
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.58%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.6% vs WACC 8.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (65th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
167 news sentiment+5.0
28 regulatory scrutiny+3.1
Downgrade headlines-0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 legal risk+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Exxon Mobil Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 65% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a positive narrative trend. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for long-term value creation.
Key Risk
Returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained profitability and valuation improvement.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.17%5 Year CAGR: 5.94%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$80,328$80,328$79,328$77,288$95,204$60,205$31,950$54,077$55,588$45,468$38,245$56,834$78,068$78,583$90,441$86,320$75,284$50,929$79,043$67,389$64,748

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Exxon Mobil Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Exxon Mobil CorporationEnergy

Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.