Market Pulse44Neutral

Woodward, Inc.Opportunity Rank #227(WWD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$426.82

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$426.82
Price
$191.60
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 55%MOS: $153.28

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

86/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Woodward, Inc. (WWD) is estimated at $191.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $426.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Woodward, Inc. (WWD) is estimated at $191.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $426.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$191.60
-55.11% downside
20% margin of safety: $153.28
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.57%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
55.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.9% trailing FCF yield
23
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.6% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
25
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
83
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
91
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 64%Updated: 6m ago
Sources: 19 (17 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 news sentiment+0.4
Earnings beat+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

86/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+37.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-1.8%
Price vs 50 EMA+13.7%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.2%
Price vs 50 EMA93 · +13.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA74 · +3.2%
3M RS vs SPY73 · +6.0%
6M RS vs SPY98 · +37.4%
Distance from 52W High96 · -1.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 70%
Thesis
Woodward, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 47%, with returns trailing its estimated cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential. The company's fundamentals show a bearish outlook despite stable narrative trends, suggesting caution for investors.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained underperformance of returns relative to the cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend affecting score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.10%5 Year CAGR: 8.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$740$602$535$383$247$502$397$487$426$400$611$574$475$364$207$163$213$248$163$150$112

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Woodward, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Woodward, Inc.Industrials

Woodward, Inc. (WWD) stands as a prominent global entity, specializing in the engineering, production, and maintenance of advanced control solutions for both the aerospace and industrial sectors. The company organizes its operations into two distinct divisions: Aerospace and Industrial. Within its Aerospace segment, Woodward delivers a comprehensive array of crucial components. This includes fuel pumps, metering units, various types of actuators, air and specialized valves, fuel nozzles, and thrust reverser actuation systems, primarily designed for turbine engines and nacelles. Additionally, it provides flight deck controls, servocontrols, motors, and sensors for aircraft applications. These sophisticated offerings are integral to a wide range of platforms, encompassing commercial and private airplanes and rotorcraft, military fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft, guided munitions, and diverse defense systems. Beyond initial sales, this segment also offers extensive aftermarket services such as maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) to commercial airlines, repair facilities, military depots, independent repair shops, and direct end-users. Products are supplied to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), tier-one suppliers, and various contractors, alongside aftermarket sales comprising provisioning spares, replacements, and individual parts. The Industrial segment offers an equally vital portfolio of products, including actuators, valves, pumps, sophisticated fuel injection systems, solenoids, ignition systems, speed control mechanisms, integrated electronics and software solutions, and sensors. These are essential for optimizing the performance of industrial gas turbines, steam turbines, compressors, and reciprocating engines. For its industrial offerings, including aftermarket products and associated services, this segment distributes to OEMs through an established network of independent distributors, as well as directly serving end-users. Woodward, Inc. was established in 1870 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Fort Collins, Colorado.