Market Pulse59Neutral

Woodward, Inc.Opportunity Rank #260(WWD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$370.77

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$370.77
Price
$191.60
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 48%MOS: $153.28

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Woodward, Inc. (WWD) is estimated at $191.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $370.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.50%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Woodward, Inc. (WWD) is estimated at $191.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $370.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.50%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$191.60
-48.32% downside
20% margin of safety: $153.28
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
48.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.3% trailing FCF yield
34
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.4% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
83
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
91
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (52nd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 78%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 33 (30 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
18 news sentiment+0.3
Earnings beat+0.3
Macro headwinds+0.1
10 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+32.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-8.3%
Price vs 21 EMA47 · -0.4%
Price vs 50 EMA50 · +0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA54 · +0.5%
3M RS vs SPY13 · -11.6%
6M RS vs SPY97 · +32.2%
Distance from 52W High83 · -8.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 70%
Thesis
Woodward, Inc. is currently overvalued with its stock price approximately 47.6% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company exhibits a bearish fundamental score and a deteriorating narrative trend, indicating weak performance prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Woodward's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.10%5 Year CAGR: 8.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$740$602$535$383$247$502$397$487$426$400$611$574$475$364$207$163$213$248$163$150$112

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Woodward, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Woodward, Inc.Industrials

Woodward, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services control solutions for the aerospace and industrial markets worldwide. The company operates through two segments: Aerospace and Industrial. The Aerospace segment provides fuel pumps, metering units, actuators, air valves, specialty valves, fuel nozzles, and thrust reverser actuation systems for turbine engines and nacelles, and flight deck controls, actuators, servocontrols, motors, and sensors for aircraft. These products are used on commercial and private aircraft and rotorcraft, as well as on military fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft, guided weapons, and other defense systems. It also provides aftermarket maintenance, repair and overhaul, and other services to commercial airlines, repair facilities, military depots, third party repair shops, and other end users. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), tier-one suppliers, and various contractors, as well as through aftermarket sales of components, such as provisioning spares or replacements, and spare parts. The Industrial segment offers actuators, valves, pumps, fuel injection systems, solenoids, ignition systems, speed controls, electronics and software, and sensors. These products are used on industrial gas turbines, steam turbines, compressors, and reciprocating engines. This segment sells its aftermarket products, and other related services to OEMs through an independent network of distributors, as well as directly to end users. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado.