Market Pulse50Neutral

Woodward, Inc.Opportunity Rank #248(WWD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$361.65

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$361.65
Price
$180.60
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 50%MOS: $144.48

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Woodward, Inc. (WWD) is estimated at $180.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $361.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.03% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Woodward, Inc. (WWD) is estimated at $180.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $361.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.03% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$180.60
-50.06% downside
20% margin of safety: $144.48
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.03%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.17%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
50.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.2% trailing FCF yield
30
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
23
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
87
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
11.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
84
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (23rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 58 (50 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
35 news sentiment+0.5
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Woodward, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 50% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that lag its cost of capital. Despite some positive free cash flow growth and buybacks, the company's ROIC is below its WACC, indicating value destruction.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Woodward's returns on invested capital remain below its cost of capital, preventing value creation and justifying the current valuation discount.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.03%5 Year CAGR: 6.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$693$602$535$383$247$502$397$487$426$400$611$574$475$364$207$163$213$248$163$150$112

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Woodward, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Woodward, Inc.Industrials

Woodward, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services control solutions for the aerospace and industrial markets worldwide. The company operates through two segments: Aerospace and Industrial. The Aerospace segment provides fuel pumps, metering units, actuators, air valves, specialty valves, fuel nozzles, and thrust reverser actuation systems for turbine engines and nacelles, and flight deck controls, actuators, servocontrols, motors, and sensors for aircraft. These products are used on commercial and private aircraft and rotorcraft, as well as on military fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft, guided weapons, and other defense systems. It also provides aftermarket maintenance, repair and overhaul, and other services to commercial airlines, repair facilities, military depots, third party repair shops, and other end users. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), tier-one suppliers, and various contractors, as well as through aftermarket sales of components, such as provisioning spares or replacements, and spare parts. The Industrial segment offers actuators, valves, pumps, fuel injection systems, solenoids, ignition systems, speed controls, electronics and software, and sensors. These products are used on industrial gas turbines, steam turbines, compressors, and reciprocating engines. This segment sells its aftermarket products, and other related services to OEMs through an independent network of distributors, as well as directly to end users. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado.