Market Pulse44Neutral

Walmart Inc.Opportunity Rank #59(WMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$117.18

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$117.18
Price
$147.00
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 25%MOS: $117.60

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Walmart Inc. (WMT) is estimated at $147.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $117.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.34% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Walmart Inc. (WMT) is estimated at $147.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $117.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.34% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$147.00
25.45% upside
20% margin of safety: $117.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.34%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.84%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
25.4% discount to price
92
FCF Yield
7.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
88
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
67
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (57th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 214 (200 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
180 news sentiment+3.2
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Legal risk-0.2
2 margin pressure-0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-12.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.6%
Price vs 21 EMA34 · -2.6%
Price vs 50 EMA29 · -4.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA34 · -1.9%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.3%
6M RS vs SPY26 · -9.6%
Distance from 52W High75 · -12.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Walmart Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 22% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and buyback activity indicate potential for value appreciation.
Key Risk
Walmart's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.34%5 Year CAGR: 8.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$69,232$60,226$56,332$45,698$37,287$46,338$35,960$38,097$38,388$42,149$39,029$40,738$36,372$38,489$37,765$36,342$38,433$34,646$35,291$35,830

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Walmart Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Walmart Inc.Consumer Defensive

Walmart Inc., established in 1945 and based in Bentonville, Arkansas, operates as a global retail powerhouse, having officially adopted its current name in February 2018, formerly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. The company's diverse operations, encompassing retail, wholesale, and e-commerce, are managed across three primary divisions: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. Its extensive physical presence includes a variety of store formats such as supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, membership-only warehouse clubs (like Sam's Club), cash-and-carry outlets, and discount stores, primarily operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market banners. Digitally, the company engages customers through numerous e-commerce platforms, including walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, and PhonePe, as well as via dedicated mobile applications. Walmart offers an exceptionally broad range of products and services. Its inventory covers groceries and daily consumables, such as dairy, meats, baked goods, deli items, fresh produce, various packaged foods (dry, chilled, or frozen), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, floral items, snacks, candies, health and beauty aids, paper products, laundry and home care essentials, baby care, and pet supplies, alongside fuel and tobacco. Furthermore, it features a comprehensive health and wellness segment, providing pharmacy, optical, and hearing services, over-the-counter medications, and other medical products. For home and personal needs, shoppers can find items ranging from home improvement goods, outdoor living products, gardening supplies, furniture, apparel, and jewelry, to tools, power equipment, housewares, toys, seasonal items, mattresses, and automotive services like tire and battery centers. The electronics department includes consumer electronics, accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Beyond merchandise, Walmart provides a suite of financial services. These include digital payment platforms, money transfer options, bill payment services, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access solutions, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access programs. The company also markets several proprietary brands, notably Allswell, Athletic Works, Equate, and Free Assembly.