Market Pulse50Neutral

Walmart Inc.Opportunity Rank #100(WMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$120.72

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$120.72
Price
$144.88
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 20%MOS: $115.90

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Walmart Inc. (WMT) is estimated at $144.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $120.72, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.82%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Walmart Inc. (WMT) is estimated at $144.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $120.72, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.82%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$144.88
20.01% upside
20% margin of safety: $115.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.77%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
20.0% discount to price
83
FCF Yield
7.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
65
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 231 (200 News · 31 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
156 news sentiment+3.7
36 regulatory scrutiny+2.9
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
2 earnings beat-0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
3 legal risk-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Walmart Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 20.1% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow growth and buyback activity indicate potential for value appreciation.
Key Risk
The key risk is Walmart's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.32%5 Year CAGR: 8.04%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$68,207$60,226$56,332$45,698$37,287$46,338$35,960$38,097$38,388$42,149$39,029$40,738$36,372$38,489$37,765$36,342$38,433$34,646$35,291$35,830

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Walmart Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Walmart Inc.Consumer Defensive

Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail, wholesale, other units, and eCommerce worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites; and mobile commerce applications. The company offers grocery and consumables, including dairy, meat, bakery, deli, produce, dry, chilled or frozen packaged foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, floral, snack foods, candy, other grocery items, health and beauty aids, paper goods, laundry and home care, baby care, pet supplies, and other consumable items; fuel, tobacco and other categories. It is also involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, and over-the-counter drugs and other medical products; and home and apparel including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, seasonal items, mattresses and tire and battery centers. In addition, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Further, it operates digital payment platforms; and offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access. Additionally, the company markets lines of merchandise under private brands, including Allswell, Athletic Works, Equate, and Free Assembly. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.