Market Pulse59Neutral

Waste Management, Inc.Opportunity Rank #118(WM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$221.45

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$221.45
Price
$361.77
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 63%MOS: $289.42

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

34/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is estimated at $361.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.45, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.95% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.96%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is estimated at $361.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.45, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.95% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.96%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$361.77
▲ 63.36% upside
20% margin of safety: $289.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.95%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
63.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
17
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
91
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 73 (66 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+0.7
27 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Earnings beat+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

34/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.8%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.6%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA24 · -5.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA43 · -0.9%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -11.8%
6M RS vs SPY46 · -1.5%
Distance from 52W High75 · -12.6%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Waste Management, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 64% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows strong buyback activity and solid free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The company’s return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.95%5 Year CAGR: 8.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,382$9,270$8,621$7,614$7,123$6,242$5,035$5,692$5,264$4,689$4,299$3,731$3,482$3,726$3,805$3,793$3,379$3,541$3,796$3,650$3,869

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Waste Management, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Waste Management, Inc.Industrials

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste management environmental services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, material recovery facility (MRF), or disposal site; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities in the United States, as well as owns and operates transfer stations. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned or operated 255 solid waste landfills; 5 secure hazardous waste landfills; 96 MRFs; and 340 transfer stations. It also provides materials processing and commodities recycling services; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company offers construction and remediation services; services related with the disposal of fly ash, and residue generated from the combustion of coal and other fuel stocks; in-plant services comprising full-service waste management solutions and consulting services; and specialized disposal services for oil and gas exploration and production operations. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.