Market Pulse57Neutral

Wingstop Inc.Opportunity Rank #173(WING) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$148.41

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$148.41
Price
$164.54
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 11%MOS: $131.63

Fundamental Score

80/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) is estimated at $164.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $148.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.96% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) is estimated at $164.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $148.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.96% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$164.54
▲ 10.87% upside
20% margin of safety: $131.63
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.96%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

80/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.9% discount to price
68
FCF Yield
6.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.8% vs WACC 7.0% (1.8x)
92
Net Debt / FCF
4.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
28.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (30th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 62%Updated: 13h ago
Sources: 17 (16 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 news sentiment+0.1
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-60.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-54.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.9%
Price vs 21 EMA15 · -6.8%
Price vs 50 EMA17 · -7.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA42 · -1.0%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.9%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -54.2%
Distance from 52W High0 · -60.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
BUYConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Wingstop Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a high score of 92 and a robust ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 6.2 points, supporting a 16.5% valuation upside. The company also benefits from a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.2% and consistent buybacks, indicating solid financial health and growth potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the current upside thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.96%5 Year CAGR: 26.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$246$201$210$162$100$77$72$61$43$30$24$15$16$13$12

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Wingstop Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Wingstop Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Wingstop Inc., together with its affiliated companies, manages and licenses a network of restaurants known by the Wingstop brand. These establishments are recognized for their made-to-order offerings, including classic bone-in wings, boneless wings, and tenders, all freshly cooked and expertly hand-tossed in a wide array of distinctive sauces. By December 25, 2021, Wingstop's extensive reach encompassed 1,695 independently operated franchise locations and 36 company-owned stores, spread throughout 44 U.S. states and seven countries globally. This enterprise, which was founded in 1994, has its corporate headquarters located in Addison, Texas.