Market Pulse59Neutral

Western Digital CorporationOpportunity Rank #170(WDC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$463.91

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$463.91
Price
$91.32
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 80%MOS: $73.06

Fundamental Score

54/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

99/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is estimated at $91.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $463.91, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.50% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is estimated at $91.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $463.91, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.50% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$91.32
-80.32% downside
20% margin of safety: $73.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.50%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
13.05%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

54/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
80.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.3% trailing FCF yield
7
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 13.1% vs WACC 9.0% (1.5x)
73
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 169 (153 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
117 news sentiment+5.8
26 regulatory scrutiny+1.1
5 upgrade headlines+0.3
4 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

99/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+63.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+191.0%
Price vs 50 EMA+35.3%
Price vs 21 EMA98 · +17.0%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +35.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA99 · +15.7%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +63.1%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +191.0%
Distance from 52W High99 · -0.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Western Digital Corporation is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite demonstrating a return on invested capital (ROIC) that exceeds its cost of capital by 4.1 percentage points and maintaining a strong net cash position. The company's improving narrative score and stable fundamentals suggest potential value if the price aligns closer to fair value levels.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a level closer to its fair value, maintaining an unsustainably high premium relative to fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor the narrative score for any meaningful shifts in trend direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.50%5 Year CAGR: 4.80%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,667$2,098$193$399$2,987$2,901$1,471$2,304$5,014$3,994$2,567$2,854$3,444$4,071$3,784$2,433$2,679$1,824$2,014$942$703

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Western Digital Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Western Digital CorporationTechnology

Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions in the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers client devices, including hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, such as desktop and notebook personal computers (PCs), smart video systems, gaming consoles, and set top boxes; flash-based embedded storage products for mobile phones, tablets, notebook PCs, and other portable and wearable devices, as well as automotive, Internet of Things, industrial, and connected home applications; and flash-based memory wafers. The company also provides data center devices and solutions comprising enterprise helium hard drives; enterprise SSDs consisting of flash-based SSDs and software solutions for use in enterprise servers, online transactions, data analysis, and other enterprise applications; data center solutions for data storage systems and tiered storage models; and data storage platforms. In addition, it offers client solutions, such as external HDD storage products in mobile and desktop form; client portable SSDs; removable cards that are used in consumer devices comprising mobile phones, tablets, imaging systems, and cameras and smart video systems; universal serial bus flash drives for use in the computing and consumer markets; and wireless drive products used in-field back up of created content, as well as wireless streaming of high-definition movies, photos, music, and documents to tablets, smartphones, and PCs. The company sells its products under the G-Technology, SanDisk, and WD brands to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, dealers, resellers, and retailers. Western Digital Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.