Market Pulse50Neutral

Western Digital CorporationOpportunity Rank #197(WDC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$261.18

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$261.18
Price
$69.25
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 73%MOS: $55.40

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is estimated at $69.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $261.18, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.17% long-term growth rate and an 11.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is estimated at $69.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $261.18, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.17% long-term growth rate and an 11.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$69.25
-73.49% downside
20% margin of safety: $55.40
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.17%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
14.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.4% trailing FCF yield
36
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.0% vs WACC 10.0% (1.5x)
75
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
82
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 179 (156 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
46 regulatory scrutiny+1.6
101 news sentiment+1.1
3 upgrade headlines+0.2
4 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Restructuring+0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Western Digital Corporation is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite a constructive fundamental profile and a strong narrative score indicating stability and improvement. The company's ROIC exceeds its cost of capital by nearly 5 percentage points, suggesting efficient capital use and potential for value creation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the substantial overvaluation relative to fair value, which could lead to price corrections if fundamentals or market sentiment deteriorate.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor the narrative score for any meaningful shifts that could indicate changes in company outlook or market perception.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.17%5 Year CAGR: 0.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,036$2,098$193$399$2,987$2,901$1,471$2,304$5,014$3,994$2,567$2,854$3,444$4,071$3,784$2,433$2,679$1,824$2,014$942$703

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Western Digital Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Western Digital CorporationTechnology

Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions in the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers client devices, including hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, such as desktop and notebook personal computers (PCs), smart video systems, gaming consoles, and set top boxes; flash-based embedded storage products for mobile phones, tablets, notebook PCs, and other portable and wearable devices, as well as automotive, Internet of Things, industrial, and connected home applications; and flash-based memory wafers. The company also provides data center devices and solutions comprising enterprise helium hard drives; enterprise SSDs consisting of flash-based SSDs and software solutions for use in enterprise servers, online transactions, data analysis, and other enterprise applications; data center solutions for data storage systems and tiered storage models; and data storage platforms. In addition, it offers client solutions, such as external HDD storage products in mobile and desktop form; client portable SSDs; removable cards that are used in consumer devices comprising mobile phones, tablets, imaging systems, and cameras and smart video systems; universal serial bus flash drives for use in the computing and consumer markets; and wireless drive products used in-field back up of created content, as well as wireless streaming of high-definition movies, photos, music, and documents to tablets, smartphones, and PCs. The company sells its products under the G-Technology, SanDisk, and WD brands to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, dealers, resellers, and retailers. Western Digital Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.