Market Pulse50Neutral

Wayfair Inc.Opportunity Rank #217(W) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$76.56

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$76.56
Price
$79.58
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 4%MOS: $63.66

Fundamental Score

42/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Wayfair Inc. (W) is estimated at $79.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.56, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.02% long-term growth rate and a 9.49% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Wayfair Inc. (W) is estimated at $79.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.56, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.02% long-term growth rate and a 9.49% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$79.58
▲ 3.94% upside
20% margin of safety: $63.66
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.02%
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Fundamental Details

42/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.9% discount to price
57
FCF Yield
6.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
4.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-11.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (8th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 67 (54 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 news sentiment+0.3
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
4 earnings beat-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 53%
Thesis
Wayfair Inc. shows a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.4% and a valuation implying a 16% upside, but its fundamentals remain weak with returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company's narrative score is stable but broken, reflecting ongoing challenges despite some valuation appeal.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating value destruction and weak operational returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.02%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.83%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$636$604$551$700-$216$690$1,751$204$307$181$191$197$65$50$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Wayfair Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Wayfair Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Wayfair Inc. (W) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq