Market Pulse59Neutral

Wayfair Inc.Opportunity Rank #238(W) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$66.20

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$66.20
Price
$81.57
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 23%MOS: $65.26

Fundamental Score

48/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

7/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Wayfair Inc. (W) is estimated at $81.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $66.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.15% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.68%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Wayfair Inc. (W) is estimated at $81.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $66.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.15% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.68%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$81.57
▲ 23.22% upside
20% margin of safety: $65.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.15%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Fundamental Details

48/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.2% discount to price
89
FCF Yield
8.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
3.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-10.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 46 (27 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
20 news sentiment+0.8
Earnings miss-0.3
2 earnings beat+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
19 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

7/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-43.2%
Price vs 50 EMA-12.5%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.5%
Price vs 50 EMA6 · -12.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA10 · -6.4%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -35.3%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -43.2%
Distance from 52W High11 · -44.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Wayfair Inc. is currently trading at a significant discount with a fair value estimated 37.5% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.0%. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a bearish overall score.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns on invested capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.15%5 Year CAGR: 0.29%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$700$604$551$700-$216$690$1,751$204$307$181$191$197$65$50$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Wayfair Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Wayfair Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.