Market Pulse44Neutral

Wayfair Inc.Opportunity Rank #208(W) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$89.31

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$89.31
Price
$78.12
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 13%MOS: $62.50

Fundamental Score

37/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

64/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Wayfair Inc. (W) is estimated at $78.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $89.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.15% long-term growth rate and a 10.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Wayfair Inc. (W) is estimated at $78.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $89.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.15% long-term growth rate and a 10.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$78.12
▼ -12.53% downside
20% margin of safety: $62.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.15%
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Fundamental Details

37/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.5% premium to price
29
FCF Yield
5.9% trailing FCF yield
98
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
10
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-10.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (82nd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 40 (26 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 news sentiment+0.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

64/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+6.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+9.6%
Price vs 21 EMA59 · +1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA82 · +8.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA89 · +6.5%
3M RS vs SPY83 · +9.6%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -29.7%
Distance from 52W High50 · -25.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Wayfair Inc. is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 32.5% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.7%. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a bearish overall score.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating it is not generating sufficient returns to cover its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.15%5 Year CAGR: 0.29%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$700$604$551$700-$216$690$1,751$204$307$181$191$197$65$50$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Wayfair Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Wayfair Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Wayfair Inc. operates as a leading e-commerce enterprise, conducting its retail activities both across the United States and internationally. The company boasts an extensive catalog featuring approximately 33 million distinct products for the home sector, distributed under a variety of proprietary brands. Through its dedicated online platforms, which include Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold, customers can browse and purchase a wide array of items, from furniture and decorative accents to kitchenware and home renovation supplies. Established in 2002, Wayfair Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Boston, Massachusetts.