Market Pulse50Neutral

Vistra Corp.Opportunity Rank #136(VST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$151.29

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$151.29
Price
$463.47
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 206%MOS: $370.78

Fundamental Score

58/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is estimated at $463.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $151.29, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.07% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is estimated at $463.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $151.29, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.07% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$463.47
▲ 206.35% upside
20% margin of safety: $370.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.59%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

58/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
206.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
13
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
10.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
76
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 85 (76 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
53 news sentiment+0.8
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 earnings beat+0.3
3 upgrade headlines+0.3
Earnings miss+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Vistra Corp. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 224.7% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and an improving narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow yield and growth prospects make it a compelling buy.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.36%5 Year CAGR: 55.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,500$8,011$6,641$7,129$1,786$827$4,596$3,345$1,967$1,917$195$697$857$318$607

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Vistra Corp.Utilities

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.