Market Pulse59Neutral

Vistra Corp.Opportunity Rank #103(VST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$153.95

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$153.95
Price
$0.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 100%MOS: $0.00

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is estimated at $N/A per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $153.95, the stock appears fairly valued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is estimated at $N/A per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $153.95, the stock appears fairly valued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

N/A
N/A
20% margin of safety: N/A
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
DCF discount unavailable
50
FCF Yield
14.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
74
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (91st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 90 (85 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
58 news sentiment+2.8
3 upgrade headlines+0.4
3 earnings beat+0.1
21 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-6.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.1%
Price vs 21 EMA17 · -6.1%
Price vs 50 EMA19 · -7.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA42 · -1.0%
3M RS vs SPY21 · -8.1%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.9%
Distance from 52W High36 · -32.2%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Vistra Corp. exhibits a strong narrative momentum and healthy free cash flow yield of 14.1%, supported by constructive fundamentals despite returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company’s improving narrative score and solid free cash flow growth suggest potential value if valuation discounts increase.
Key Risk
The key risk is the persistent negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are insufficient to cover capital costs.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.33%5 Year CAGR: 54.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,332$8,011$6,641$7,129$1,786$827$4,596$3,345$1,967$1,917$195$697$857$318$607

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Vistra Corp.Utilities

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.