VST

$143.07

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 12.00% trendline growth.
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$403.64

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$322.91
125.70% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
2.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
60
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
125.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
11
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
93
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.
Narrative Score
67
Improving
Weighted across 4 recent drivers · Last 30 days+6 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: High (100th pct)
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 97%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 102 (News 95 · Analyst 7)
Drivers
74 news sentiment+0.6
Upgrade headlines+0.5
20 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
7 analyst reiterations0.0
Other Metrics
P/E42.2
Profit Margin5.3%
Owner Earnings$6.53b
One Dollar Premise27.00%
Debt/Equity6.45
Current Ratio0.93
PEG-0.757
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
$607$318$857$697$195$1,917$1,967$3,345$4,596$827$1,786$7,129$6,337
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Vistra Corp.Utilities

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.