Market Pulse59Neutral

Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #184(VRTX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$425.00

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$425.00
Price
$476.87
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 12%MOS: $381.50

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

34/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is estimated at $476.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $425.00, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is estimated at $476.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $425.00, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$476.87
12.20% upside
20% margin of safety: $381.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.87%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.2% discount to price
70
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
61
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.9% vs WACC 8.0% (1.1x)
55
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
6.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
57
Strengths: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 97 (74 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
47 news sentiment+1.4
24 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
3 earnings beat+0.3
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
21 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

34/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-13.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.2%
Price vs 21 EMA46 · -0.7%
Price vs 50 EMA36 · -2.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.9%
6M RS vs SPY34 · -5.8%
Distance from 52W High72 · -13.9%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Vertex Pharmaceuticals presents an attractive investment opportunity with an 18.6% upside based on its fair value and supportive narrative score of 73. The company's fundamentals are constructive, supported by a net cash balance sheet and a positive ROIC versus WACC spread.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the valuation discount narrows below 10%, potentially limiting upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.12%5 Year CAGR: 10.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,771$4,069-$195$3,796$4,335$2,879$3,513$1,645$1,366$1,104$293-$320-$4620$$339$238-$597-$404-$194-$220$10

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedHealthcare

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis. The company markets SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO to treat patients with cystic fibrosis who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene; and TRIKAFTA for the treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age or older who have at least one F508del mutation. Its pipeline includes VX-864 for the treatment of AAT deficiency, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX-147 for the treatment of APOL1-mediated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, or FSGS, and other serious kidney diseases which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX- 880, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; VX-548, a NaV1.8 inhibitor for treatments of acute, neuropathic, musculoskeletal pain which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; and CTX001 for the treatment severe SCD and TDT which is in Phase 3 clinical trial. The company sells its products primarily to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as specialty distributors and retail chains, and hospitals and clinics internationally. It has collaborations with Affinia Therapeutics, Inc.; Arbor Biotechnologies, Inc.; CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.; Mammoth Biosciences, Inc.; Moderna, Inc.; Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc.; and Skyhawk Therapeutics, Inc.; as well as Ribometrix, Inc.; Genomics plc; Merck KGaA; Darmstadt, Germany, and X-Chem, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.