Market Pulse50Neutral

Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #193(VRTX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$451.24

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$451.24
Price
$399.85
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $319.88

Fundamental Score

48/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is estimated at $399.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $451.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.07% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is estimated at $399.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $451.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.07% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$399.85
-11.39% downside
20% margin of safety: $319.88
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.52%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

48/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.4% premium to price
31
FCF Yield
3.6% trailing FCF yield
39
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.5% vs WACC 8.0% (1.1x)
53
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 109 (87 News · 22 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
30 regulatory scrutiny+1.2
52 news sentiment+1.0
6 analyst upgrades+0.2
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
2 earnings miss-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Vertex Pharmaceuticals shows a strong narrative with improving trends and a solid balance sheet near net cash, though its valuation is slightly above fair value, suggesting patience is warranted. The company's fundamentals are neutral with a modest ROIC spread over WACC and consistent free cash flow generation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not decline to a sufficient discount to fair value, limiting upside potential in the near term.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.07%5 Year CAGR: 7.17%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,069$4,069-$195$3,796$4,335$2,879$3,513$1,645$1,366$1,104$293-$320-$4620$$339$238-$597-$404-$194-$220$10

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedHealthcare

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis. The company markets SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO to treat patients with cystic fibrosis who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene; and TRIKAFTA for the treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age or older who have at least one F508del mutation. Its pipeline includes VX-864 for the treatment of AAT deficiency, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX-147 for the treatment of APOL1-mediated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, or FSGS, and other serious kidney diseases which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX- 880, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; VX-548, a NaV1.8 inhibitor for treatments of acute, neuropathic, musculoskeletal pain which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; and CTX001 for the treatment severe SCD and TDT which is in Phase 3 clinical trial. The company sells its products primarily to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as specialty distributors and retail chains, and hospitals and clinics internationally. It has collaborations with Affinia Therapeutics, Inc.; Arbor Biotechnologies, Inc.; CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.; Mammoth Biosciences, Inc.; Moderna, Inc.; Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc.; and Skyhawk Therapeutics, Inc.; as well as Ribometrix, Inc.; Genomics plc; Merck KGaA; Darmstadt, Germany, and X-Chem, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq