Market Pulse50Neutral

Varonis Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #94(VRNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$24.18

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$24.18
Price
$31.07
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 28%MOS: $24.86

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) is estimated at $31.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.75% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) is estimated at $31.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.75% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$31.07
28.49% upside
20% margin of safety: $24.86
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.75%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-7.99%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
28.5% discount to price
97
FCF Yield
5.6% trailing FCF yield
90
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -8.0% vs WACC 10.0% (-0.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
106.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 214 (200 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
179 legal risk+0.6
10 regulatory scrutiny-0.6
10 news sentiment-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Varonis Systems, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 38.5% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.6%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and discounted cash flow metrics indicate potential upside.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.74%5 Year CAGR: 55.39%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$160$160$122$65$23$18$4$15$33$22$11$2-$5$1$3$2$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Varonis Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Varonis Systems, Inc.Technology

Varonis Systems, Inc. provides software products and services that allow enterprises to manage, analyze, alert, and secure enterprise data in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. Its software enables enterprises to protect data stored on premises and in the cloud, including sensitive files and emails; confidential personal data belonging to customers, and patients and employees' data; financial records; strategic and product plans; and other intellectual property. The company offers DatAdvantage that captures, aggregates, normalizes, and analyzes every data access event for users on Windows and UNIX/Linux servers, storage devices, email systems, Intranet servers, cloud applications, and data stores; and DatAlert that profiles users, devices, and their behaviors related to systems and data, detects and alerts on deviations that indicate compromise, and provides a Web-based dashboard and investigative interface. It also provides Data Classification Engine that identifies and tags data based on criteria set in various metadata dimensions, as well as provides business and information technology (IT) personnel with actionable intelligence about data; and DataPrivilege, which offers a self-service Web portal that allows users to request access to data necessary for their business functions, and owners to grant access without IT intervention. In addition, the company provides Data Transport Engine, which provides an execution engine that unifies the manipulation of data and metadata, translating business decisions, and instructions into technical commands, such as data migration or archiving; and DatAnswers that offers search functionality for enterprise data. Varonis Systems, Inc. sells products and services through a network of distributors and resellers. The company serves IT, security, and business personnel. Varonis Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in New York, New York.