Market Pulse57Neutral

Venture Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #52(VG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$13.23

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$13.23
Price
$188.23
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 1323%MOS: $150.58

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

64/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $188.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $13.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.32% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.98%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $188.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $13.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.32% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.98%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$188.23
▲ 1322.75% upside
20% margin of safety: $150.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1322.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
59.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
36
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 13h ago
Sources: 45 (38 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
25 news sentiment+0.5
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

64/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+74.7%
Price vs 21 EMA+10.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.1%
Price vs 50 EMA84 · +8.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA39 · -1.3%
3M RS vs SPY28 · -5.8%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +74.7%
Distance from 52W High51 · -24.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 34d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Venture Global, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 1388% above its current price and a strong free cash flow yield of 59.5%. However, its returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential operational challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 34.38%5 Year CAGR: 65.04%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$19,295$19,931$15,866$12,641$8,320$1,576

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Venture Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Venture Global, Inc.Energy

Venture Global, Inc., a liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, engages in the ownership, development, construction, and operation of LNG production facilities and associated infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company is involved in LNG production, natural gas transportation, and regasification operations, as well as LNG sales and shipping business through LNG tankers. Its LNG projects include Calcasieu, Plaquemines, and CP2 projects. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Venture Global, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Venture Global Partners II, LLC.