Market Pulse46Neutral

Venture Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #76(VG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$12.24

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$12.24
Price
$188.23
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 1438%MOS: $150.58

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $188.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $12.24, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.32% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.91%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $188.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $12.24, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.32% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.91%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$188.23
▲ 1437.83% upside
20% margin of safety: $150.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1437.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
64.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
36
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
-3 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (23rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 45 (38 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
25 news sentiment+0.4
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+70.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.8%
Price vs 21 EMA+4.2%
Price vs 21 EMA74 · +4.2%
Price vs 50 EMA56 · +1.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA28 · -2.8%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.8%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +70.0%
Distance from 52W High37 · -31.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Venture Global, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 1388% above its current price and a strong free cash flow yield of 59.5%. However, its returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential operational challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 34.38%5 Year CAGR: 65.04%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$19,295$19,931$15,866$12,641$8,320$1,576

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Venture Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Venture Global, Inc.Energy

Venture Global, Inc., a liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, engages in the ownership, development, construction, and operation of LNG production facilities and associated infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company is involved in LNG production, natural gas transportation, and regasification operations, as well as LNG sales and shipping business through LNG tankers. Its LNG projects include Calcasieu, Plaquemines, and CP2 projects. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Venture Global, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Venture Global Partners II, LLC.