Market Pulse44Neutral

U.S. BancorpOpportunity Rank #3(USB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$63.14

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$63.14
Price
$46.48
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 26%MOS: $37.18

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

78/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB) is estimated at $46.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $63.14, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.69% long-term growth rate and an 11.80% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB) is estimated at $46.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $63.14, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.69% long-term growth rate and an 11.80% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$46.48
-26.39% downside
20% margin of safety: $37.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
20.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
26.4% premium to price
6
FCF Yield
9.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 20.2% vs WACC 11.0% (1.8x)
92
Net Debt / FCF
3.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 87 (67 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 news sentiment+2.9
11 regulatory scrutiny+2.6
4 earnings beat+1.2
Downgrade headlines+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1
19 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

78/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+7.9%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.1%
Price vs 50 EMA80 · +7.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA78 · +3.9%
3M RS vs SPY79 · +7.9%
6M RS vs SPY76 · +10.4%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
U.S. Bancorp is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 166% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 98 and a robust ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 27.1 points. The company also demonstrates a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.9%, indicating strong financial performance and shareholder value potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the valuation discount narrows below 10% or if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital in upcoming quarters, which could undermine the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.69%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,595$7,970$11,273$8,447$21,119$9,870$3,716$4,889$10,564$6,472$5,336$8,782$5,332$11,446$7,958$9,820$5,241$7,600$5,307$2,904$5,391

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates U.S. Bancorp's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

U.S. BancorpFinancial Services

U.S. Bancorp (USB) functions as a broad-based financial services holding company, delivering a comprehensive spectrum of banking and financial solutions throughout the United States. Its diverse customer base includes individual consumers, various businesses, institutional organizations, governmental bodies, and other financial entities. The company organizes its operations across key segments: Corporate and Commercial Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Investment Services, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support. Its offerings encompass fundamental depository services such as checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificates. U.S. Bancorp also extends a variety of credit facilities, including traditional lending products, credit card services, lease financing, support for import/export trade, asset-backed lending, and agricultural finance. Furthermore, it provides supplementary services like capital markets access, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection for its corporate and governmental clients. The firm also offers a full suite of asset management and fiduciary services designed for individuals, estates, foundations, corporations, and charitable organizations. Beyond these, the company supplies investment and insurance products, predominantly to customers within its operating regions, and delivers fund administration services to a range of mutual and other investment funds. Its portfolio also includes corporate and purchasing card services, corporate trust management, and merchant processing. U.S. Bancorp's capabilities additionally span investment management, ATM network operation, mortgage banking, insurance provision, brokerage activities, and leasing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company distributed its products and services through a physical network of 2,230 banking branches, mainly concentrated in the Midwest and Western United States. Digital access was also extensively provided via online platforms, mobile devices, and other electronic channels. Additionally, it managed a network of 4,059 ATMs. Founded in 1863, U.S. Bancorp is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.