Market Pulse50Neutral

U.S. BancorpOpportunity Rank #5(USB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$51.52

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$51.52
Price
$88.50
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 72%MOS: $70.80

Fundamental Score

98/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

-7 vs previous

The intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB) is estimated at $88.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $51.52, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.53% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 13.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB) is estimated at $88.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $51.52, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.53% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 13.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$88.50
71.78% upside
20% margin of safety: $70.80
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.53%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
132.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

98/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
71.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 133.0% vs WACC 11.0% (12.1x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
-7 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (15th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 90 (77 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
Upgrade headlines+0.3
43 news sentiment+0.2
Legal risk+0.1
Restructuring+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
U.S. Bancorp is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 74.2% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 98 and a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 122 basis points. The company's robust free cash flow metrics and ongoing buybacks further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the valuation discount narrows below 10% or if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital, which could undermine the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.53%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.23%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$7,970$7,970$11,273$8,447$21,119$9,870$3,716$4,889$10,564$6,472$5,336$8,782$5,332$11,446$7,958$9,820$5,241$7,600$5,307$2,904$5,391

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates U.S. Bancorp's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

U.S. BancorpFinancial Services

U.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities and other financial institutions in the United States. It operates in Corporate and Commercial Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Investment Services, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. The company offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; lending services, such as traditional credit products; and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. It also provides ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers; and a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations. In addition, the company offers investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its markets, as well as fund administration services to a range of mutual and other funds. Further, it provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and merchant processing services, as well as investment management, ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, and brokerage and leasing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company provided its products and services through a network of 2,230 banking offices principally operating in the Midwest and West regions of the United States, as well as through on-line services, over mobile devices, and other distribution channels; and operated a network of 4,059 ATMs. The company was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.