Market Pulse59Neutral

U.S. BancorpOpportunity Rank #16(USB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$55.31

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$55.31
Price
$149.72
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 171%MOS: $119.78

Fundamental Score

98/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB) is estimated at $149.72 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $55.31, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.69% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 13.47%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB) is estimated at $149.72 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $55.31, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.69% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 13.47%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$149.72
170.69% upside
20% margin of safety: $119.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
38.07%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

98/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
170.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
11.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 38.1% vs WACC 11.0% (3.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (18th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 105 (90 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
29 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
53 news sentiment+0.7
5 earnings beat+0.0
2 legal risk+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-15.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-8.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+9.9%
Price vs 21 EMA49 · -0.2%
Price vs 50 EMA55 · +0.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.1%
3M RS vs SPY7 · -15.3%
6M RS vs SPY75 · +9.9%
Distance from 52W High83 · -8.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
U.S. Bancorp is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 173.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 27.1 points. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow metrics and effective buybacks, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend poses a risk that could undermine investor sentiment and valuation despite strong fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.69%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,595$7,970$11,273$8,447$21,119$9,870$3,716$4,889$10,564$6,472$5,336$8,782$5,332$11,446$7,958$9,820$5,241$7,600$5,307$2,904$5,391

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates U.S. Bancorp's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

U.S. BancorpFinancial Services

U.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities and other financial institutions in the United States. It operates in Corporate and Commercial Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Investment Services, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. The company offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; lending services, such as traditional credit products; and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. It also provides ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers; and a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations. In addition, the company offers investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its markets, as well as fund administration services to a range of mutual and other funds. Further, it provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and merchant processing services, as well as investment management, ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, and brokerage and leasing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company provided its products and services through a network of 2,230 banking offices principally operating in the Midwest and West regions of the United States, as well as through on-line services, over mobile devices, and other distribution channels; and operated a network of 4,059 ATMs. The company was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.