Market Pulse59Neutral

Urban Outfitters, Inc.Opportunity Rank #80(URBN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$70.44

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$70.44
Price
$90.53
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 29%MOS: $72.42

Fundamental Score

72/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) is estimated at $90.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $70.44, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.87% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) is estimated at $90.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $70.44, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.87% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$90.53
28.52% upside
20% margin of safety: $72.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.87%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.91%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

72/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
28.5% discount to price
98
FCF Yield
11.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
73
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 70%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 25 (22 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
18 news sentiment+0.1
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-13.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA67 · +3.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA62 · +1.5%
3M RS vs SPY20 · -8.1%
6M RS vs SPY56 · +2.0%
Distance from 52W High73 · -13.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Urban Outfitters, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 28.6% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 72 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 11.2%. Despite returns trailing the cost of capital, the company's solid buyback activity and positive free cash flow growth suggest potential for value appreciation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, which could limit long-term value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.87%5 Year CAGR: 9.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$705$685$709$342$622$445$491$562$387$559$548$552$609$565$473$529$435$364$370$399

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Urban Outfitters, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Urban Outfitters, Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and Nully. It operates Urban Outfitters stores, which offer women's and men's fashion apparel, activewear, intimates, footwear, accessories, home goods, electronics, and beauty products for young adults aged 18 to 28; and Anthropologie stores that provide women's casual apparel, accessories, intimates, shoes, and home furnishings, as well as gifts, decorative items, and beauty and wellness products for women aged 28 to 45. The company also operates Bhldn stores, which offer heirloom quality wedding gowns, bridesmaid frocks, party dresses, assorted jewelry, headpieces, footwear, lingerie, and decorations; and Terrain stores that provide lifestyle home products, garden and outdoor living products, antiques, live plants, flowers, wellness products, and accessories. In addition, it operates Free People retail stores, which offer casual women's apparel, intimates, activewear, shoes, accessories, home products, gifts, and beauty and wellness products for young women aged 25 to 30; restaurants; and women's apparel subscription rental service under the Nuuly brand name. The company serves its customers directly through retail stores, Websites, mobile applications, catalogs and customer contact centers, franchised or third-party operated stores, and digital businesses. As of January 31, 2022, it operated 261 Urban Outfitters, 238 Anthropologie Group, and 173 Free People stores in the United States, Canada, and Europe; and 10 restaurants, as well as two Urban Outfitters and one Anthropologie franchisee-owned stores. The company is also involved in the wholesale of young women's contemporary casual apparel, intimates, activewear, and shoes under the Free People brand; and home goods through department and specialty stores worldwide. The company was founded in 1970 and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.