Market Pulse50Neutral

Upwork Inc.Opportunity Rank #29(UPWK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$11.42

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$11.42
Price
$57.97
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 408%MOS: $46.38

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Upwork Inc. (UPWK) is estimated at $57.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.86% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Upwork Inc. (UPWK) is estimated at $57.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.86% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$57.97
▲ 407.62% upside
20% margin of safety: $46.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.86%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.87%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
407.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.9x)
44
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
48.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (29th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 79%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 30 (23 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
18 news sentiment+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Upwork Inc. presents a compelling buy opportunity with a fair value estimated at 412% above the current price and strong fundamentals highlighted by a high fundamental score of 84 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 17.6%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's robust free cash flow growth and buyback activity support its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk lies in the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns currently do not cover the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.61%5 Year CAGR: 72.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$263$254$168$69$20$17$37$18$21-$2$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Upwork Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Upwork Inc.Industrials

Upwork Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a work marketplace that connects businesses with various independent professionals and agencies in the United States, India, the Philippines, and internationally. The company's work marketplace provides access to talent with various skills across a range of categories, including sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, design and creative, web, mobile, and software development. Its work marketplace also enables clients to streamline workflows, such as talent sourcing, outreach, and contracting. The company's work marketplace offers access to various functionalities for remote engagements with talent, including communication and collaboration, ability to receive talent invoices through their work marketplace, and payment protection. Its marketplace offerings include Upwork Basic, Upwork Plus, Upwork Enterprise, and Upwork Payroll, as well as managed and internet escrow agency services. The company was formerly known as Elance-oDesk, Inc. and changed its name to Upwork Inc. in May 2015. Upwork Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.