Market Pulse44Neutral

United Parcel Service, Inc.Opportunity Rank #64(UPS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$107.21

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$107.21
Price
$224.64
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 110%MOS: $179.71

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

54/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is estimated at $224.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.21, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is estimated at $224.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.21, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$224.64
109.53% upside
20% margin of safety: $179.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
109.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
1.6x net debt to FCF
42
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (91st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 99%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 85 (80 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
67 news sentiment+1.7
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat-0.0
Demand slowdown+0.0
Restructuring-0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

54/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-10.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA+2.5%
Price vs 21 EMA57 · +1.1%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.4%
3M RS vs SPY38 · -2.9%
6M RS vs SPY37 · -4.7%
Distance from 52W High79 · -10.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 125.6% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 13.9%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Key Risk
UPS's return on invested capital (ROIC) remains below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.32%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$12,196$12,135$14,031$15,396$18,873$19,201$15,871$15,019$18,994$6,706$9,438$9,809$8,054$9,369$9,369$9,078$5,224$6,887$11,062$3,943$8,674

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Parcel Service, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Parcel Service, Inc.Industrials

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stands as a leading global entity in shipping and logistics, delivering an extensive array of services such as parcel and document conveyance, transportation of goods, and supply chain management. The corporation structures its widespread operations into two principal divisions: U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. Within the United States, its Domestic Package unit specializes in time-guaranteed delivery for a range of items, including correspondence, critical paperwork, smaller parcels, and palletized cargo, utilizing both air and surface transportation methods. Conversely, the International Package division ensures reliable, precise-time international shipping services across extensive geographical areas, encompassing Europe, the Asia Pacific region, Canada, Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment notably features guaranteed express options for urgent consignments. Beyond core package services, UPS extends its reach to roughly 200 nations and jurisdictions, offering international air and sea cargo forwarding, expert customs clearance, distribution and after-sales support, alongside postal and advisory solutions. Furthermore, its diversified portfolio includes truckload transport brokering; tailored supply chain management for the healthcare and life sciences sectors; sophisticated shipping, tracking, and invoicing technologies; and a suite of financial and insurance offerings. Supporting these extensive operations is an impressive operational fleet of around 121,000 vehicles, comprising package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles. Additionally, it possesses 59,000 specialized containers integral for cargo transport aboard its aircraft. Established in 1907, United Parcel Service, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Atlanta, Georgia.