Market Pulse59Neutral

United Parcel Service, Inc.Opportunity Rank #145(UPS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$100.10

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$100.10
Price
$224.64
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 124%MOS: $179.71

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

37/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is estimated at $224.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $100.10, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.03%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is estimated at $224.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $100.10, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.03%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$224.64
▲ 124.42% upside
20% margin of safety: $179.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.24%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
124.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
1.6x net debt to FCF
42
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (16th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 99%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 132 (127 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
98 news sentiment+0.3
2 earnings beat-0.3
Demand slowdown+0.1
Restructuring-0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0

Trend Details

37/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-16.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-2.4%
Price vs 21 EMA38 · -1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA38 · -2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA46 · -0.5%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.9%
6M RS vs SPY49 · -0.4%
Distance from 52W High68 · -16.0%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently trading at a significant discount with a fair value estimated 132.7% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 14.3%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating operational challenges despite strong buybacks.
Key Risk
UPS's return on invested capital remains well below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.32%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$12,196$12,135$14,031$15,396$18,873$19,201$15,871$15,019$18,994$6,706$9,438$9,809$8,054$9,369$9,369$9,078$5,224$6,887$11,062$3,943$8,674

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Parcel Service, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Parcel Service, Inc.Industrials

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.