Market Pulse44Neutral

United Parcel Service, Inc.Opportunity Rank #69(UPS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$117.72

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$117.72
Price
$225.52
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 92%MOS: $180.42

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

76/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is estimated at $225.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $117.72, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is estimated at $225.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $117.72, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.32% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$225.52
▲ 91.57% upside
20% margin of safety: $180.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.28%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
91.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
1.5x net debt to FCF
44
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (44th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 58 (52 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 upgrade headlines+0.5
45 news sentiment+0.3
Earnings beat+0.2
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

76/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+8.9%
Price vs 21 EMA+5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA85 · +8.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA72 · +2.8%
3M RS vs SPY73 · +6.1%
6M RS vs SPY55 · +1.9%
Distance from 52W High96 · -1.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 125.6% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 13.9%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Key Risk
UPS's return on invested capital (ROIC) remains below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.32%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$12,196$12,135$14,031$15,396$18,873$19,201$15,871$15,019$18,994$6,706$9,438$9,809$8,054$9,369$9,369$9,078$5,224$6,887$11,062$3,943$8,674

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Parcel Service, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Parcel Service, Inc.Industrials

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq