Market Pulse44Neutral

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #44(UNH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$426.09

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$426.09
Price
$687.06
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 61%MOS: $549.65

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

82/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

84/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is estimated at $687.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $426.09, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.40% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is estimated at $687.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $426.09, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.40% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$687.06
61.25% upside
20% margin of safety: $549.65
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.40%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.99%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
61.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
49
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

82/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 219 (182 News · 37 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
136 news sentiment+6.1
35 regulatory scrutiny+5.8
4 earnings beat+1.9
5 upgrade headlines+0.6
Downgrade headlines+0.6
3 analyst upgrades+0.3

Trend Details

84/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+28.7%
Distance from 52-Week High-1.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+19.5%
Price vs 21 EMA61 · +1.8%
Price vs 50 EMA79 · +6.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA83 · +4.9%
3M RS vs SPY99 · +28.7%
6M RS vs SPY90 · +19.5%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 50% above its current price and demonstrates a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.2%. The company's strong and improving narrative score supports a positive investment outlook despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may indicate ongoing challenges in generating returns above the company's cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.40%5 Year CAGR: 4.17%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$30,417$23,319$27,703$32,454$29,008$24,797$24,225$20,534$17,776$15,619$11,500$11,296$9,498$8,152$8,225$7,986$7,151$6,364$5,029$6,748$7,254

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedHealthcare

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment provides a wide array of health benefit plans and consumer-focused services. These offerings cater to a broad spectrum of clients, including large national corporations, public sector employers, mid-sized and small businesses, and individual consumers. It also delivers specialized health coverage and wellness programs tailored for individuals aged 50 and older, addressing their needs for preventive and acute care, chronic disease management, and other age-specific health issues. This division further encompasses Medicaid plans, children's health insurance, dental benefits, and various hospital and clinical services. Optum Health focuses on delivering direct healthcare solutions and management services. It facilitates access to networks of specialist care providers, offers health management programs, direct care delivery, consumer engagement initiatives, and financial services. Its diverse clientele includes individuals (served directly through care systems), employers, insurance payers, and government organizations. Optum Insight specializes in providing technology, information, and consulting services to the healthcare industry. Its offerings include software and data products, advisory consulting arrangements, and outsourced managed services. Clients span hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governmental bodies, life sciences companies, and other relevant organizations. Finally, Optum Rx handles the company's pharmaceutical care services. This segment manages retail pharmacy networks, provides home prescription delivery, and offers specialty and compounding pharmacy capabilities. Leveraging its purchasing power and clinical expertise, Optum Rx also develops advanced programs related to step therapy, formulary management, medication adherence, and integrated disease and drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, founded in 1977, has its corporate headquarters located in Minnetonka, Minnesota.