Market Pulse50Neutral

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #158(UNH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$269.54

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$269.54
Price
$497.73
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 85%MOS: $398.18

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is estimated at $497.73 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $269.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.23% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.10%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is estimated at $497.73 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $269.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.23% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.10%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$497.73
84.66% upside
20% margin of safety: $398.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
84.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
25
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (92nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 212 (200 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
95 regulatory scrutiny+3.3
99 news sentiment+2.4
Upgrade headlines+0.1
2 legal risk-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
UnitedHealth Group is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 93% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score and healthy free cash flow yield. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's buyback activity and stable narrative trend suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the persistent negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not covering the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.23%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.62%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$23,319$23,319$27,703$32,454$29,008$24,797$24,225$20,534$17,776$15,619$11,500$11,296$9,498$8,152$8,225$7,986$7,151$6,364$5,029$6,748$7,254

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedHealthcare

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a diversified health care company in the United States. It operates through four segments: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; health care coverage and well-being services to individuals age 50 and older addressing their needs for preventive and acute health care services, as well as services dealing with chronic disease and other specialized issues for older individuals; Medicaid plans, children's health insurance and health care programs; health and dental benefits; and hospital and clinical services. The OptumHealth segment provides access to networks of care provider specialists, health management services, care delivery, consumer engagement, and financial services. This segment serves individuals directly through care delivery systems, employers, payers, and government entities. The OptumInsight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governments, life sciences companies, and other organizations. The OptumRx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and compounding pharmacy, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease/drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.