Market Pulse59Neutral

Unusual Machines, Inc.Opportunity Rank #305(UMAC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$13.50

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$13.50
Price
$4.70
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 65%MOS: $3.76

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

34/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $4.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $13.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.49% long-term growth rate and a 12.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $4.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $13.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.49% long-term growth rate and a 12.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.70
▼ -65.19% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: -43.49%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-25.27%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
65.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-3.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -25.3% vs WACC 7.0% (-3.6x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
7.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (90th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 82%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 31 (27 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
19 news sentiment+0.3
Earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

34/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA-6.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-39.4%
Price vs 21 EMA17 · -6.1%
Price vs 50 EMA18 · -7.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA38 · -1.4%
3M RS vs SPY43 · -1.7%
6M RS vs SPY60 · +3.8%
Distance from 52W High21 · -39.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Unusual Machines, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 63.9% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals including negative returns on invested capital and elevated leverage. Despite a stable and strong narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate poor performance and high risk.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's substantial negative spread between ROIC and WACC combined with high net debt to free cash flow, which could impair its financial stability and growth prospects.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -43.50%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -45.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$19-$19-$4-$2-$10$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Unusual Machines, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Unusual Machines, Inc.Financial Services

Unusual Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells ultra-low latency video goggles for drone pilots. It also operates a drone-focused e-commerce marketplace. The company was formerly known as AerocarveUS Corporation and changed its name to Unusual Machines, Inc. in July 2022. Unusual Machines, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in San Juan, Puerto Rico.