Market Pulse50Neutral

Unusual Machines, Inc.Opportunity Rank #328(UMAC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$15.99

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$15.99
Price
$4.70
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 71%MOS: $3.76

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $4.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.49% long-term growth rate and a 12.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $4.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.49% long-term growth rate and a 12.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.70
▼ -70.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: -43.49%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-25.27%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
70.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-3.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -25.3% vs WACC 7.0% (-3.6x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
7.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 65%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 20 (17 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Upgrade headlines+0.2
13 news sentiment+0.1
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Unusual Machines, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 69.5% above the estimated fair value of $4.88, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits high leverage and poor return on invested capital, indicating financial distress and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in financial performance or failure to improve returns on invested capital could further depress valuation and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the company’s narrative and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -43.50%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -45.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$19-$19-$4-$2-$10$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Unusual Machines, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Unusual Machines, Inc.Financial Services

Unusual Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells ultra-low latency video goggles for drone pilots. It also operates a drone-focused e-commerce marketplace. The company was formerly known as AerocarveUS Corporation and changed its name to Unusual Machines, Inc. in July 2022. Unusual Machines, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in San Juan, Puerto Rico.