Market Pulse63Bullish

Unusual Machines, Inc.Opportunity Rank #301(UMAC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$18.81

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$18.81
Price
$5.26
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $4.21

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $5.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.72% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $5.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.72% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$5.26
▼ -72.04% downside
20% margin of safety: $4.21
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-19.58%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-5.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -19.6% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
8.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (9th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 43 (38 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 news sentiment+0.4
Earnings beat-0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
Inventory pressure+0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+40.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-12.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+18.7%
Price vs 21 EMA3 · -12.4%
Price vs 50 EMA14 · -8.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA80 · +4.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +40.5%
6M RS vs SPY89 · +18.7%
Distance from 52W High13 · -43.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Unusual Machines, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 82% above the estimated fair value of $4.12, reflecting weak fundamentals including a negative ROIC spread and elevated leverage. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
Continued high leverage and negative returns on invested capital could further deteriorate the company's financial health and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.72%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -51.02%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$35-$19-$4-$2-$10$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Unusual Machines, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Unusual Machines, Inc.Technology

Unusual Machines, Inc. engages in the commercial drone industry. The company offers small drones and essential components. It distributes their products through B2B sale, e-commerce site, and retail channel. The company has a strategic collaboration with Lantronix Inc. for the development of autonomous drone components integrating edge AI compute with flight control systems. The company was formerly known as AerocarveUS Corporation and changed its name to Unusual Machines, Inc. in July 2022. Unusual Machines, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.