Market Pulse53Neutral

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Opportunity Rank #23(ULTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$477.96

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$477.96
Price
$923.95
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 93%MOS: $739.16

Fundamental Score

87/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

27/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is estimated at $923.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $477.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.59%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is estimated at $923.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $477.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.59%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$923.95
93.31% upside
20% margin of safety: $739.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.50%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.8%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

87/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
93.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.8% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
54
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 91 (77 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
68 news sentiment+0.8
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Macro headwinds+0.0
4 earnings beat+0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

27/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-37.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.2%
Price vs 21 EMA51 · +0.2%
Price vs 50 EMA40 · -2.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.1%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -37.5%
Distance from 52W High35 · -32.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly double its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield and positive ROIC spread over WACC. The company's bullish fundamental score and stable, strong narrative further reinforce its growth potential and investment appeal.
Key Risk
A key risk is that the valuation discount may narrow below 10%, reducing the upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.50%5 Year CAGR: 16.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,051$1,713$1,912$1,794$1,231$962$1,400$1,276$1,220$1,008$675$646$554$428$350$274$241$186$149$118

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.