Market Pulse50Neutral

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Opportunity Rank #32(ULTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$516.11

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$516.11
Price
$894.06
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 73%MOS: $715.25

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

27/100
Broken

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is estimated at $894.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $516.11, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.41%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is estimated at $894.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $516.11, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.41%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$894.06
▲ 73.23% upside
20% margin of safety: $715.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.49%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.8% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
54
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

27/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (15th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 112 (92 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
66 news sentiment-1.2
2 earnings miss-0.4
15 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
Downgrade headlines-0.2
5 earnings beat-0.1
Margin pressure+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 67%
Thesis
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 74.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 81 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.8%. Despite a deteriorating narrative score, the company shows solid financial metrics such as positive ROIC versus WACC spread and strong free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the deteriorating narrative score which may indicate underlying issues not yet reflected in the fundamentals or valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.49%5 Year CAGR: 16.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,030$1,713$1,912$1,794$1,231$962$1,400$1,276$1,220$1,008$675$646$554$428$350$274$241$186$149$118

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.