Market Pulse59Neutral

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Opportunity Rank #64(ULTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$526.53

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$526.53
Price
$894.06
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 70%MOS: $715.25

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is estimated at $894.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $526.53, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.55%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is estimated at $894.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $526.53, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.55%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$894.06
▲ 69.80% upside
20% margin of safety: $715.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.49%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
69.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.8% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
54
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (95th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 100 (85 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 upgrade headlines+1.6
62 news sentiment+0.6
Analyst upgrades+0.1
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 earnings miss-0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-31.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-3.7%
Price vs 21 EMA31 · -3.2%
Price vs 50 EMA20 · -6.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA22 · -3.7%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -31.3%
6M RS vs SPY27 · -8.9%
Distance from 52W High48 · -26.2%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 71.1% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 8.8% and a positive ROIC versus WACC spread. The company's narrative score is strong and improving, indicating favorable market sentiment and growth prospects.
Key Risk
A key risk is the potential narrowing or reversal of the valuation discount, which could limit upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.49%5 Year CAGR: 16.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,030$1,713$1,912$1,794$1,231$962$1,400$1,276$1,220$1,008$675$646$554$428$350$274$241$186$149$118

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.