ULTA

$677.91

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 6.80% trendline growth.
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$885.68

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$708.54
4.52% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
12.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
62
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.5% discount to price
58
FCF Yield
5.5% trailing FCF yield
88
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.1% vs WACC 10.0% (1.2x)
61
Net Debt / FCF
0.4x net debt to FCF
92
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: FCF CAGR (5Y).
Narrative Score
75
Improving
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: High (97th pct)
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 78 (News 56 · Analyst 22)
Drivers
17 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
35 news sentiment+0.9
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0
Other Metrics
P/E25.5
Profit Margin9.9%
Owner Earnings$1.80b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity1.52
Current Ratio1.50
PEG0.255
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$79$118$149$186$241$274$350$428$554$646$675$1,008$1,220$1,276$1,400$962$1,231$1,794$1,912$1,675
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.