Market Pulse59Neutral

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #99(UAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$99.70

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$99.70
Price
$888.05
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 791%MOS: $710.44

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

46/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is estimated at $888.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $99.70, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.93% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is estimated at $888.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $99.70, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.93% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$888.05
▲ 790.72% upside
20% margin of safety: $710.44
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.93%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.86%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
790.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
48.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
611.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (36th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 210 (200 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
174 news sentiment+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

46/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.9%
Price vs 21 EMA+5.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-15.3%
Price vs 21 EMA78 · +5.2%
Price vs 50 EMA66 · +3.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA37 · -1.6%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.9%
6M RS vs SPY34 · -5.8%
Distance from 52W High69 · -15.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 817.8% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 48.9%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's bullish fundamental score and robust free cash flow growth suggest attractive long-term upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.93%5 Year CAGR: 30.56%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$15,833$14,305$15,060$14,082$10,885$4,174-$2,406$11,437$10,234$7,344$8,765$8,739$4,639$3,608$2,951$3,108$2,278$1,283-$824$2,792$1,901

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Industrials

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.