Market Pulse44Neutral

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #14(UAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$115.41

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$115.41
Price
$858.15
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 644%MOS: $686.52

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

60/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is estimated at $858.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $115.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.91% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is estimated at $858.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $115.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.91% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$858.15
▲ 643.57% upside
20% margin of safety: $686.52
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.91%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
643.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
40.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
87
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
607.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 133 (113 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
86 news sentiment+4.5
22 regulatory scrutiny+2.7
Legal risk-0.1
3 earnings beat+0.1
Restructuring+0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

60/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+5.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA18 · -5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA86 · +5.6%
3M RS vs SPY93 · +15.5%
6M RS vs SPY41 · -3.5%
Distance from 52W High70 · -15.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 790% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield and robust buybacks. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, the company's healthy cash flow growth and valuation discount present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.91%5 Year CAGR: 29.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$15,281$14,305$15,060$14,082$10,885$4,174-$2,406$11,437$10,234$7,344$8,765$8,739$4,639$3,608$2,951$3,108$2,278$1,283-$824$2,792$1,901

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Industrials

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating the movement of both passengers and freight. The company operates these services using a combination of its primary and regional aircraft fleets. Beyond its core transportation offerings, United also provides specialized support to external clients, encompassing catering, ground handling, aviation training, and aircraft maintenance. Established in 1968, the enterprise has its principal offices in Chicago, Illinois. Notably, it adopted its current name, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., in June 2019, having previously operated as United Continental Holdings, Inc.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq