Market Pulse50Neutral

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #77(UAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$93.96

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$93.96
Price
$788.95
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 740%MOS: $631.16

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

41/100
Weak

+8 vs previous

The intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is estimated at $788.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.86% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is estimated at $788.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.86% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$788.95
▲ 739.67% upside
20% margin of safety: $631.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.86%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
739.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
47.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
82
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
599.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

41/100
Weak
+8 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 140 (122 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 regulatory scrutiny-0.6
109 news sentiment-0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Product recall-0.0
18 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 760% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a bullish score of 70 and exceptional free cash flow growth. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, improving narrative trends suggest potential for positive momentum.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.86%5 Year CAGR: 27.93%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,305$14,305$15,060$14,082$10,885$4,174-$2,406$11,437$10,234$7,344$8,765$8,739$4,639$3,608$2,951$3,108$2,278$1,283-$824$2,792$1,901

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Industrials

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.