Market Pulse50Neutral

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Opportunity Rank #115(TXRH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$167.20

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$167.20
Price
$192.17
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 15%MOS: $153.74

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is estimated at $192.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $167.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.57% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is estimated at $192.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $167.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.57% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$192.17
▲ 14.93% upside
20% margin of safety: $153.74
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.57%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
14.9% discount to price
75
FCF Yield
6.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.5% vs WACC 9.0% (0.8x)
41
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
57
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
93
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (54th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 41 (27 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
18 news sentiment+0.1
8 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
13 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. presents a compelling buy opportunity with a strong fundamental score of 74 and a valuation implying a 17.5% upside, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.6%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company's consistent buybacks and robust free cash flow growth underpin its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.57%5 Year CAGR: 1.75%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$730$1,118$1,108$912$758$670$385$589$509$448$422$401$317$284$231$219$165$161$204$178$191

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates and franchises restaurants under the Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers names. As of December 28, 2021, it operated 566 domestic restaurants and 101 franchise restaurants. Texas Roadhouse, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.