Market Pulse44Neutral

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Opportunity Rank #13(TXRH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$197.03

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$197.03
Price
$328.37
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 67%MOS: $262.70

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

78/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is estimated at $328.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $197.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.84% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is estimated at $328.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $197.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.84% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$328.37
66.66% upside
20% margin of safety: $262.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.84%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.25%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.3% vs WACC 9.0% (0.8x)
40
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
24.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (84th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 67%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 22 (9 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
7 news sentiment+0.4
Analyst upgrades+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

78/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.2%
Price vs 50 EMA+8.9%
Price vs 21 EMA78 · +5.1%
Price vs 50 EMA85 · +8.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA77 · +3.6%
3M RS vs SPY95 · +17.2%
6M RS vs SPY40 · -3.5%
Distance from 52W High99 · -0.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is undervalued with a fair value estimate over 100% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.6%. Despite a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, the company shows improving narrative trends and robust free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.84%5 Year CAGR: 11.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,142$1,118$1,108$912$758$670$385$589$509$448$422$401$317$284$231$219$165$161$204$178$191

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Texas Roadhouse, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, is actively engaged in the casual dining sector, managing restaurants both within the United States and on a global scale. The company's portfolio encompasses establishments operating under its proprietary brands, which include Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers, all of which it either directly runs or licenses to franchisees. By December 28, 2021, the firm reported overseeing 566 company-operated restaurants in the U.S., complemented by 101 franchised locations. Founded in 1993, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. maintains its corporate base in Louisville, Kentucky.