Market Pulse59Neutral

The Trade Desk, Inc.Opportunity Rank #159(TTD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$23.49

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$23.49
Price
$81.28
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 246%MOS: $65.02

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

17/100
Broken

-4 vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is estimated at $81.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $23.49, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is estimated at $81.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $23.49, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$81.28
▲ 246.02% upside
20% margin of safety: $65.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.03%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
246.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.9x)
45
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

17/100
Broken
-4 vs previous · +4 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 167 (134 News · 33 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
105 news sentiment-2.1
7 downgrade headlines-1.1
3 earnings miss-0.9
4 upgrade headlines+0.8
6 analyst downgrades-0.7
10 regulatory scrutiny-0.3

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-74.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-60.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-21.5%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA18 · -4.5%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -21.5%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -60.5%
Distance from 52W High0 · -74.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 67%
Thesis
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) presents a compelling buy opportunity with a current price significantly undervalued by 251% relative to its estimated fair value and strong fundamental metrics including a healthy free cash flow yield of 12.1%. Despite a deteriorating narrative score, the company's robust fundamentals and positive free cash flow growth support its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative score indicates potential underlying issues that could negatively impact investor sentiment and stock performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 14.37%5 Year CAGR: 25.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$1,349$1,190$847$653$641$438$485$101$112$44$84-$30-$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Trade Desk, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Trade Desk, Inc.Technology

Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.