Market Pulse50Neutral

The Trade Desk, Inc.Opportunity Rank #31(TTD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$23.95

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$23.95
Price
$67.51
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 182%MOS: $54.01

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

39/100
Broken

+3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is estimated at $67.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $23.95, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.92% long-term growth rate and a 9.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is estimated at $67.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $23.95, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.92% long-term growth rate and a 9.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$67.51
▲ 181.88% upside
20% margin of safety: $54.01
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.96%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
181.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.0% vs WACC 9.0% (1.0x)
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

39/100
Broken
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 99%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 227 (192 News · 35 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 downgrade headlines-1.6
162 news sentiment+0.7
6 analyst downgrades-0.4
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Margin pressure-0.0
Macro headwinds-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 67%
Thesis
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) presents a compelling buy opportunity with a fair value estimated at 183% above its current price and strong fundamentals highlighted by a high fundamental score of 85 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.5%. Despite a deteriorating narrative score, the company's robust free cash flow growth and buyback activity support its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk lies in the deteriorating narrative score, which may signal underlying issues not yet reflected in the fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 14.18%5 Year CAGR: 22.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$1,198$1,190$847$653$641$438$485$101$112$44$84-$30-$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Trade Desk, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Trade Desk, Inc.Technology

Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.