Market Pulse63Bullish

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedOpportunity Rank #75(TSM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$434.11

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$434.11
Price
$415.47
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 4%MOS: $332.38

Fundamental Score

82/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

72/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is estimated at $415.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $434.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is estimated at $415.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $434.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$415.47
-4.29% downside
20% margin of safety: $332.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
14.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

82/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.3% premium to price
43
FCF Yield
5.1% trailing FCF yield
78
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.0% vs WACC 8.0% (1.9x)
94
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (54th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 205 (200 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
183 news sentiment+6.2
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Restructuring+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

72/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+26.7%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+7.7%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA64 · +2.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA77 · +3.7%
3M RS vs SPY78 · +7.7%
6M RS vs SPY95 · +26.7%
Distance from 52W High82 · -9.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) presents a strong investment opportunity with a robust fundamental score of 86 and a return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly exceeding its cost of capital by 6.9 percentage points. The company also demonstrates a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.5% and a supportive narrative score of 80, indicating stable confidence in its growth prospects.
Key Risk
A key risk is the potential decline in ROIC below the cost of capital, which could undermine the company's profitability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC staying above the cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.68%5 Year CAGR: 13.48%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$115,089$114,362$86,726$68,496$84,171$61,147$41,899$33,818$27,950$28,716$27,211$24,678$22,254$19,879$16,683$14,387$13,037$7,723$8,774$8,347$8,843

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedTechnology

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the United States. The company is renowned for its diverse array of wafer fabrication processes. These capabilities enable the production of various advanced semiconductor types, including complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal devices, radio frequency components, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS mixed-signal circuits. Beyond its core foundry services, TSMC extends its offerings to include dedicated customer and engineering support. It also undertakes the production of specialized masks, actively invests in burgeoning technology startups, and manages the entire lifecycle—from research and development through to manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sales—of color filters. Furthermore, the company provides a range of investment services. TSMC's cutting-edge products are indispensable across numerous sectors, powering high-performance computing, modern smartphones, Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystems, sophisticated automotive systems, and a broad spectrum of digital consumer electronics. Established in 1987, the enterprise is officially headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.