Market Pulse50Neutral

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedOpportunity Rank #16(TSM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$338.45

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$338.45
Price
$396.74
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 17%MOS: $317.39

Fundamental Score

86/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is estimated at $396.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $338.45, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.66% long-term growth rate and a 9.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is estimated at $396.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $338.45, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.66% long-term growth rate and a 9.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$396.74
17.22% upside
20% margin of safety: $317.39
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.66%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
14.12%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

86/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
17.2% discount to price
79
FCF Yield
6.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 14.1% vs WACC 8.0% (1.8x)
88
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 203 (200 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
41 regulatory scrutiny+3.8
157 news sentiment+3.4
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Layoffs-0.1
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is undervalued with an estimated fair value 20.4% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 6.1 points. The company exhibits robust free cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score of 87, indicating solid financial health and growth prospects.
Key Risk
A key risk is if TSM's ROIC falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.66%5 Year CAGR: 12.68%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$111,656$114,983$87,197$68,868$84,628$61,479$42,127$34,002$28,102$28,872$27,359$24,812$22,375$19,987$16,774$14,465$13,108$7,765$8,822$8,393$8,891

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedTechnology

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides a range of wafer fabrication processes, including processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also offers customer and engineering support services; manufactures masks; and invests in technology start-up companies; researches, designs, develops, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells color filters; and provides investment services. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.