Market Pulse50Neutral

Trex Company, Inc.Opportunity Rank #58(TREX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$36.92

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$36.92
Price
$87.57
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 137%MOS: $70.06

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) is estimated at $87.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.92, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.09% long-term growth rate and a 10.40% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) is estimated at $87.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.92, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.09% long-term growth rate and a 10.40% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$87.57
137.19% upside
20% margin of safety: $70.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.83%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
137.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.8% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
94
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
73
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (13th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 72%Updated: 48m ago
Sources: 37 (37 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
22 news sentiment+0.2
2 legal risk-0.0
Macro headwinds-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Trex Company, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 146.8% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 14.6%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company shows bullish indicators such as robust buybacks and a solid fundamental score of 73.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remains below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.08%5 Year CAGR: 6.41%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$569$582$381$556$392$417$360$224$172$117$100$86$72$58$68$41$29$42$42$23$24

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Trex Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Trex Company, Inc.Industrials

Trex Company, Inc. manufactures and distributes decking, railing, and outdoor living products and accessories for residential and commercial markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Trex Residential and Trex Commercial. It offers decking products under the names Trex Transcend, Trex Select, and Trex Enhance for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching; Trex Hideaway, a hidden fastening system; and Trex DeckLighting, a LED dimmable deck lighting for use on posts, floors, and steps. The company also provides Trex Transcend Railing products that are used in Trex decking products and other decking materials; Trex Select Railing products for a simple clean finished look; Trex Enhance Railing system; and Trex Signature aluminum railing for a contemporary look. In addition, it offers Trex Seclusions, a fencing product that includes structural posts, bottom and top rails, pickets, and decorative post caps. In addition, it designs, engineers, and markets architectural and aluminum railing systems, and staging equipment and accessories for the commercial market, as well as sports stadiums and performing arts venues. Further, the company acts as a licensor in various licensing agreements with third parties to manufacture and sell products under the Trex name, including Trex Outdoor Furniture; Trex RainEscape, an above joist deck drainage system; Trex Pergola, a cellular PVC product; Trex Latticeworks outdoor lattice boards; Trex Cornhole boards; Diablo Trex Blade, a saw blade for wood-alternative composite decking; Trex SpiralStairs and structural steel posts; and Trex Outdoor Kitchens, Cabinetry, and Storage products. It sells its products through wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and Home Depot and Lowe's stores, as well as through its direct sales staff, independent sales representatives, and bidding on projects. Trex Company, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.