Market Pulse44Neutral

Toast, Inc.Opportunity Rank #138(TOST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$30.08

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$30.08
Price
$30.77
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 2%MOS: $24.62

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

58/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Toast, Inc. (TOST) is estimated at $30.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $30.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.04% long-term growth rate and an 11.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Toast, Inc. (TOST) is estimated at $30.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $30.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.04% long-term growth rate and an 11.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$30.77
2.29% upside
20% margin of safety: $24.62
Years: 10Growth Rate: 13.04%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
63.34%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
2.3% discount to price
54
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
61
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 63.3% vs WACC 8.0% (7.9x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
286.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (93rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 52 (42 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
40 news sentiment+1.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

58/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.3%
Price vs 50 EMA+10.1%
Price vs 21 EMA+5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA87 · +10.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.0%
3M RS vs SPY48 · -0.4%
6M RS vs SPY7 · -23.3%
Distance from 52W High22 · -39.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Toast, Inc. presents a strong investment opportunity with a bullish fundamental score of 92 and a valuation implying an 18.4% upside. Its ROIC significantly exceeds the cost of capital by 51.3 points, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.5%.
Key Risk
The primary risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the current upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 109.13%5 Year CAGR: 105.73%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$774$714$414$177-$123$21-$89-$111

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Toast, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Toast, Inc.Technology

Toast, Inc. delivers a comprehensive cloud-based digital technology platform tailored specifically for the restaurant sector, serving businesses across the United States and Ireland. Its extensive product suite features an array of hardware solutions, including the foundational Toast Point of Sale (POS) system. Toast Flex offers versatile functionality, adaptable as an on-counter order and payment terminal, a server workstation, a guest kiosk, a kitchen display system, or an order fulfillment hub. For enhanced tableside service and expedited table turnover, the company provides Toast Go, a handheld POS device facilitating ordering and payment acceptance directly at the table, alongside Toast Tap, a compact card reader. Beyond hardware, Toast supplies robust software solutions. Toast Order & Pay empowers guests to place orders and settle bills conveniently from their mobile devices. The platform integrates specialized kitchen display system software, streamlining communication between front-of-house staff and the kitchen team. For larger operations, multi-location management software enables customers to centralize operational control, standardize procedures, and efficiently configure menus. Back-office administrative tasks are supported by xtraCHEF tools. Furthermore, Toast Flex for Kitchen provides a larger, mountable hardware solution designed specifically as a kitchen screen. Regarding customer engagement and logistics, Toast offers the Toast Online Ordering & Toast TakeOut app, a software platform enabling restaurants to accept off-premises orders directly through their branded websites. For delivery, they provide First-Party Delivery services, allowing restaurants to manage their own driver fleets and customize delivery parameters such as hours, zones, fees, and minimum order values. Additionally, Toast Delivery Services connects restaurants with a network of third-party delivery drivers, complemented by broader Toast Delivery Partners services. The company's offerings extend to comprehensive business support services. These encompass loyalty programs and gift card management, payroll and team administration tools, tailored business owner policy insurance with restaurant-specific enhancements, and efficient payment processing solutions. Toast also facilitates financial support through loans advanced to restaurants and purchase financing options. Detailed reporting and analytics solutions provide valuable insights. For broader integration, Toast Partner Connect allows users to discover, select, and seamlessly integrate with various third-party partners via bi-directional APIs. Established in 2011, Toast, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Boston, Massachusetts.