Market Pulse50Neutral

Toast, Inc.Opportunity Rank #112(TOST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$27.56

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$27.56
Price
$26.56
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 4%MOS: $21.25

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Toast, Inc. (TOST) is estimated at $26.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.95% long-term growth rate and an 11.99% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Toast, Inc. (TOST) is estimated at $26.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.95% long-term growth rate and an 11.99% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$26.56
-3.63% downside
20% margin of safety: $21.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.95%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
54.65%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.6% premium to price
44
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
60
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 54.7% vs WACC 8.0% (6.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
281.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (47th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 61 (51 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Upgrade headlines+0.4
42 news sentiment+0.3
7 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Layoffs-0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Toast, Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a solid net cash position, supporting a bullish investment stance despite a current valuation slightly above fair value. The company's free cash flow growth and buyback activity further reinforce its financial strength and potential for shareholder value creation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the current valuation being close to fair value, which may limit near-term upside and requires patience for a more attractive entry point.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remaining above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Any meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or fundamental score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 106.05%5 Year CAGR: 102.44%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$714$714$414$177-$123$21-$89-$111

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Toast, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Toast, Inc.Technology

Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based and digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States and Ireland. The company offers Toast Point of Sale (POS), a hardware product; Toast Order & Pay, which allows guests to order and pay from their mobile devices; Toast Flex that is used for on-counter order and pay, as well as used as a server station, guest kiosk, kitchen display system, or order fulfillment station; Toast Go, a handheld POS device that enhances the table turn times through tableside ordering and payment acceptance; and Toast Tap, a card reader. It also provides kitchen display system software that connects the front of the house with the kitchen staff; multi-location management software, which allows customers to manage and standardize their operations and configure menus; xtraCHEF that provides back-office tools; and Toast Flex for Kitchen, a larger format mountable piece of hardware that can be used as a kitchen screen. In addition, the company offers Toast Online Ordering & Toast TakeOut app, a software-based platform that provides restaurants to take off-premises orders directly through their branded website; First-Party Delivery services for restaurants to manage a fleet of drivers, and customize delivery hours, zones, fees, and minimum ticket sizes; Toast Delivery Services, which enables restaurants to utilize a partner network of delivery drivers; and Toast Delivery Partners services. Further, it provides loyalty programs and gift cards; payroll and team management products; business owner policy insurance and restaurant-specific add-ons; payment processing solutions; loans advanced to restaurants; purchase financing; reporting and analytics solutions; Toast Partner Connect that allows customers to discover, select, and connect their restaurant to its partners; and bi-directional APIs. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.