Market Pulse44Neutral

T-Mobile US, Inc.Opportunity Rank #122(TMUS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$192.43

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$192.43
Price
$826.70
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 330%MOS: $661.36

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

46/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is estimated at $826.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $192.43, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.86% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is estimated at $826.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $192.43, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.86% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$826.70
▲ 329.61% upside
20% margin of safety: $661.36
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.86%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.28%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
329.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
30
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
14.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
97
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (27th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 70 (60 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 news sentiment+0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.2
Earnings beat-0.2
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

46/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.3%
Price vs 21 EMA+4.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-7.5%
Price vs 21 EMA73 · +4.1%
Price vs 50 EMA65 · +3.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA42 · -0.9%
3M RS vs SPY20 · -8.3%
6M RS vs SPY30 · -7.5%
Distance from 52W High49 · -25.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
T-Mobile US, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 334.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 19.1%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and buyback activity suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.86%5 Year CAGR: 2.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$41,020$37,905$34,604$29,370$34,082$35,609$21,007$14,182$9,567$14,896$14,805$12,073$11,363$7,951$2,022$2,018$1,785$1,783$1,731$1,377$2,312

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates T-Mobile US, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

T-Mobile US, Inc.Communication Services

T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Catering to approximately 108.7 million subscribers, the company delivers essential voice, messaging, and data connectivity to customers in postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale segments. Beyond services, T-Mobile also supplies a broad array of wireless devices, such as smartphones, wearables, tablets, and other mobile communication gadgets, along with associated accessories. These offerings are marketed under both the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands. Direct distribution occurs through its proprietary retail stores, the T-Mobile mobile application, customer service channels, and its official online platforms. Additionally, the company provides devices to independent dealers and other distributors for resale via external retail locations and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2021, its robust network infrastructure encompassed approximately 102,000 macro cell sites and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system locations. T-Mobile US, Inc. was established in 1994 and maintains its headquarters in Bellevue, Washington.