Market Pulse53Neutral

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.Opportunity Rank #230(TMO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$572.32

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$572.32
Price
$559.21
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 2%MOS: $447.37

Fundamental Score

37/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

75/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is estimated at $559.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $572.32, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.11% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is estimated at $559.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $572.32, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.11% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$559.21
-2.29% downside
20% margin of safety: $447.37
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.11%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

37/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
2.3% premium to price
46
FCF Yield
5.0% trailing FCF yield
76
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
3.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 94%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 34 (29 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 regulatory scrutiny+1.9
17 news sentiment+1.5
2 legal risk+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

75/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+12.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.4%
Price vs 21 EMA87 · +8.0%
Price vs 50 EMA91 · +12.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA77 · +3.7%
3M RS vs SPY95 · +17.5%
6M RS vs SPY11 · -18.4%
Distance from 52W High78 · -11.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield. The stock's valuation is near fair value, suggesting investors should remain patient rather than initiate new positions now.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.11%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,708$9,343$10,067$9,885$11,397$12,066$9,763$5,899$5,301$4,513$3,601$3,240$3,047$2,293$2,355$1,958$1,763$1,867$1,685$1,659$482

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.Healthcare

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. is a global leader in scientific services, providing a comprehensive range of offerings that include life sciences solutions, advanced analytical instruments, specialized diagnostic products, and an extensive portfolio of laboratory supplies and biopharmaceutical services. The company's reach extends across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other international markets. Its Life Sciences Solutions division furnishes researchers with essential reagents, state-of-the-art instruments, and consumables vital for biological and medical exploration, the development and manufacturing of therapeutics and vaccines, and the detection of infections and various diseases. This segment encompasses bioscience, genetic science, and bioproduction technologies, serving a broad spectrum of clients in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, agricultural, clinical, healthcare, academic, and governmental sectors. The Analytical Instruments segment delivers a variety of precision instruments, consumables, software, and support services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, academic, governmental, environmental, and industrial research environments, as well as clinical laboratories. The Specialty Diagnostics segment offers an array of diagnostic tools, including liquid, ready-to-use, and lyophilized immunodiagnostic reagent kits, alongside calibrators, controls, protein detection assays, and accompanying instruments. This also features the creation and distribution of complete blood test systems to aid in the clinical diagnosis and monitoring of allergies, asthma, and autoimmune diseases. Furthermore, it provides dehydrated and prepared culture media, specimen collection and transport systems, related instrumentation and consumables, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing and testing crucial for the organ transplant sector, and other healthcare products. Lastly, the Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment supplies laboratory equipment, serves the research and safety markets through its channels, and offers extensive pharmaceutical services, encompassing clinical research support. The company's products and services are distributed through a dedicated direct sales team, customer service professionals, online commerce platforms, and a network of third-party distributors. Its recognized brands include Thermo Scientific, Applied Biosystems, Invitrogen, Fisher Scientific, Unity Lab Services, Patheon, and PPD. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. was established in 1956 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.