Market Pulse50Neutral

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.Opportunity Rank #232(TMO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$478.12

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$478.12
Price
$438.28
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 8%MOS: $350.62

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is estimated at $438.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $478.12, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.04% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is estimated at $438.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $478.12, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.04% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$438.28
-8.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $350.62
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.04%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.49%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
8.3% premium to price
36
FCF Yield
5.3% trailing FCF yield
82
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.5% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
3.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 81 (76 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
46 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
26 news sentiment+0.3
Legal risk+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Restructuring-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. currently exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive narrative and a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.3%. The stock is slightly overvalued with a negative upside of approximately 3.6%, leading to an avoid recommendation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.04%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.68%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,343$9,343$10,067$9,885$11,397$12,066$9,763$5,899$5,301$4,513$3,601$3,240$3,047$2,293$2,355$1,958$1,763$1,867$1,685$1,659$482

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.Healthcare

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. provides life sciences solutions, analytical instruments, specialty diagnostics, and laboratory products and biopharma services in the North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company's Life Sciences Solutions segment offers reagents, instruments, and consumables for biological and medical research, discovery, and production of drugs and vaccines, as well as diagnosis of infections and diseases; and solutions include biosciences, genetic sciences, and bio production to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, agricultural, clinical, healthcare, academic, and government markets. Its Analytical Instruments segment provides instruments, consumables, software, and services for pharmaceutical, biotechnology, academic, government, environmental, and other research and industrial markets, as well as clinical laboratories. The company's Specialty Diagnostics segment offers liquid, ready-to-use, and lyophilized immunodiagnostic reagent kits, as well as calibrators, controls, protein detection assays, and instruments; immunodiagnostics develops, manufactures and markets complete bloodtest systems to support the clinical diagnosis and monitoring of allergy, asthma and autoimmune diseases; dehydrated and prepared culture media, collection and transport systems, instrumentation, and consumables; human leukocyte antigen typing and testing for organ transplant market; and healthcare products. Its Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment provides laboratory products, research and safety market channel, and pharma services and clinical research. It offers products and services through a direct sales force, customer-service professionals, electronic commerce, and third-party distributors under Thermo Scientific; Applied Biosystems; Invitrogen; Fisher Scientific; Unity Lab Services; and Patheon and PPD. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.