Market Pulse47Neutral

TransMedics Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #97(TMDX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$71.23

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$71.23
Price
$219.94
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 209%MOS: $175.95

Fundamental Score

87/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

17/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) is estimated at $219.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $71.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.66% long-term growth rate and a 10.34% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) is estimated at $219.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $71.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.66% long-term growth rate and a 10.34% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$219.94
▲ 208.77% upside
20% margin of safety: $175.95
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.66%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

87/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
208.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
11.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.3% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
56
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
217.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
-2 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (77th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 71%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 26 (16 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
9 news sentiment+0.3
3 margin pressure+0.1
Earnings miss+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

17/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-52.6%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-45.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-57.6%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA14 · -8.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA6 · -8.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -45.8%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -57.6%
Distance from 52W High0 · -52.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 71%
Thesis
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) presents a compelling buy opportunity with an estimated fair value over 200% above its current price and strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 11.2%. The company demonstrates solid returns with ROIC exceeding its cost of capital and a bullish fundamental score of 82, supported by healthy cash flow growth and buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk lies in the potential for the valuation discount to narrow below 10% or for the ROIC to fall below the cost of capital, which could undermine the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.24%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 216.07%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$289$252$179$166-$34-$25-$30-$32-$26-$23-$23

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TransMedics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TransMedics Group, Inc.Healthcare

TransMedics Group, Inc. operates as a commercial-stage medical technology enterprise, committed to transforming the landscape of organ transplant therapy for patients worldwide grappling with end-stage organ failure. At the core of their offerings is the Organ Care System (OCS), an innovative, portable solution engineered to perfuse, optimize, and continuously monitor donor organs. This system leverages exclusive, tailored technology to meticulously recreate near-physiological conditions for these vital organs while they remain outside the human body. The OCS suite encompasses specialized modules: OCS LUNG, which facilitates the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplants; OCS Heart, designed for the extracorporeal perfusion and maintenance of donor hearts; and OCS Liver, dedicated to the preservation of donor livers. Founded in 1998, TransMedics is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.