Market Pulse50Neutral

TransMedics Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #20(TMDX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$112.08

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$112.08
Price
$156.01
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 39%MOS: $124.81

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) is estimated at $156.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $112.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.77% long-term growth rate and an 11.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) is estimated at $156.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $112.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.77% long-term growth rate and an 11.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$156.01
▲ 39.20% upside
20% margin of safety: $124.81
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.23%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
39.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
6.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.2% vs WACC 10.0% (1.2x)
61
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
209.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (52nd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 80%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 33 (27 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 news sentiment+0.5
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Earnings beat+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
TransMedics Group, Inc. is undervalued with a fair value estimated 41.3% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital and a healthy free cash flow yield. The company demonstrates robust financial health with a bullish fundamental score of 83 and significant free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The company's narrative score is weak and deteriorating, which may indicate potential challenges in maintaining positive market sentiment or operational momentum.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.24%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 208.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$252$252$179$166-$34-$25-$30-$32-$26-$23-$23

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TransMedics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TransMedics Group, Inc.Healthcare

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its Organ Care System includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for extracorporeal perfusion and preservation of donor hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of donor livers. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.