Market Pulse50Neutral

TMC the metals company Inc.Opportunity Rank #313(TMC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$5.06

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.06
Price
$0.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 96%MOS: $0.16

Fundamental Score

22/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) is estimated at $0.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.06, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -40.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) is estimated at $0.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.06, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -40.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.20
▼ -96.05% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: -40.92%
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Fundamental Details

22/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
96.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-2.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
13
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-53.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 80%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 35 (33 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
26 news sentiment+0.4
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.1
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
TMC the metals company Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value nearly 95% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. Despite some narrative improvement, the company's returns trail its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of returns relative to the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -40.91%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -45.17%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202420232022202120202019
-$45-$43-$59-$65-$56-$26$0

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TMC the metals company Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TMC the metals company Inc.Basic Materials

TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. The company primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. TMC the metals company Inc., through its subsidiaries, holds exploration rights in three polymetallic nodule contract areas in the CCZ of the Pacific Ocean. Its products are used in electric vehicles (EV), renewable energy storage markets, EV wiring, clean energy transmission, manganese alloy production required for steel production, and other applications. The company was formerly known as Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMC the metals company Inc. TMC the metals company Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.