Market Pulse44Neutral

The TJX Companies, Inc.Opportunity Rank #116(TJX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$154.39

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$154.39
Price
$171.05
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 11%MOS: $136.84

Fundamental Score

86/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

42/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is estimated at $171.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $154.39, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.03% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.72%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is estimated at $171.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $154.39, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.03% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.72%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$171.05
10.79% upside
20% margin of safety: $136.84
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.03%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
19.23%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

86/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.8% discount to price
68
FCF Yield
5.7% trailing FCF yield
92
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 19.2% vs WACC 11.0% (1.7x)
87
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
93
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 79 (68 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
61 news sentiment+0.9
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

42/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-8.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-7.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.1%
Price vs 21 EMA50 · -0.1%
Price vs 50 EMA45 · -1.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA42 · -1.0%
3M RS vs SPY21 · -7.9%
6M RS vs SPY29 · -8.1%
Distance from 52W High83 · -8.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
The TJX Companies, Inc. presents a strong investment opportunity with a robust fundamental score of 81 and a return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly exceeding its cost of capital by 8.1 percentage points, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.2%. The company's improving narrative score and consistent buybacks further reinforce its bullish outlook despite a modest valuation upside of 2.4%.
Key Risk
A key risk is the deteriorating trend in the narrative score, which could signal potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum or market position.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital over the coming quarters.
  • Monitor narrative score for meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.03%5 Year CAGR: 13.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$9,721$8,034$7,779$5,541$4,102$5,130$5,290$5,214$4,083$4,627$3,849$3,920$3,537$4,024$2,719$2,684$2,701$1,738$1,888$1,573

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The TJX Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The TJX Companies, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

The TJX Companies, Inc., alongside its various associated businesses, functions as a major discount retailer focusing on clothing and household decor. Its operations are organized into four primary divisions: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The enterprise markets an extensive selection of goods, including clothing for all family members (such as shoes and complementary items); a broad array of home furnishings and accessories (ranging from essential household goods, furniture, floor coverings, and lighting fixtures to gift items, soft textiles, decorative pieces, dining wares, and kitchen utensils), alongside growing departments for pet supplies, children's products, and gourmet foodstuffs. Jewelry, additional accessories, and various general merchandise are also available. By the close of February 23, 2022, TJX maintained a considerable retail network across several continents. In the United States, this footprint included 1,284 T.J. Maxx, 1,148 Marshalls, 850 HomeGoods, 59 Sierra, and 39 Homesense physical stores, complemented by online portals like tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com. Its Canadian presence featured 293 Winners, 147 HomeSense, and 106 Marshalls outlets. European consumers could visit 618 T.K. Maxx and 77 Homesense locations, with an e-commerce option at tkmaxx.com. Furthermore, Australia hosted 68 T.K. Maxx establishments. Established in 1962, the firm's corporate headquarters are located in Framingham, Massachusetts.