Market Pulse50Neutral

The TJX Companies, Inc.Opportunity Rank #147(TJX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$156.50

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$156.50
Price
$143.84
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 8%MOS: $115.07

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is estimated at $143.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $156.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.92% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.61%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is estimated at $143.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $156.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.92% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.61%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$143.84
-8.09% downside
20% margin of safety: $115.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
14.59%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
8.1% premium to price
37
FCF Yield
5.0% trailing FCF yield
76
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 14.6% vs WACC 11.0% (1.3x)
66
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
83
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
11.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
82
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (31st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 75 (69 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
61 news sentiment+1.1
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 earnings beat+0.1
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
The TJX Companies, Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 3.6 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.0%, supporting a bullish outlook despite a valuation near fair value. The company's consistent buybacks and positive free cash flow growth further reinforce its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend signals potential weakening in business momentum that could undermine future performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful improvement or further deterioration.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.92%5 Year CAGR: 11.32%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$8,770$8,034$7,779$5,541$4,102$5,130$5,290$5,214$4,083$4,627$3,849$3,920$3,537$4,024$2,719$2,684$2,701$1,738$1,888$1,573

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The TJX Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The TJX Companies, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company sells family apparel, including footwear and accessories; home fashions, such as home basics, furniture, rugs, lighting products, giftware, soft home products, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware, as well as expanded pet, kids, and gourmet food departments; jewelry and accessories; and other merchandise. As of February 23, 2022, it operated 1,284 T.J. Maxx, 1,148 Marshalls, 850 HomeGoods, 59 Sierra, and 39 Homesense stores, as well as tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com in the United States; 293 Winners, 147 HomeSense, and 106 Marshalls stores in Canada; 618 T.K. Maxx and 77 Homesense stores, as well as tkmaxx.com in Europe; and 68 T.K. Maxx stores in Australia. The company was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.