Market Pulse50Neutral

Target CorporationOpportunity Rank #111(TGT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$114.98

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$114.98
Price
$305.29
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 166%MOS: $244.23

Fundamental Score

54/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT) is estimated at $305.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $114.98, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.84% long-term growth rate and a 9.22% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT) is estimated at $305.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $114.98, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.84% long-term growth rate and a 9.22% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$305.29
▲ 165.52% upside
20% margin of safety: $244.23
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.84%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

54/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
165.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
22
Net Debt / FCF
0.0x net debt to FCF
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 232 (200 News · 32 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
155 news sentiment+4.3
28 regulatory scrutiny+2.6
5 upgrade headlines+0.5
7 earnings beat+0.3
3 analyst upgrades+0.1
Margin pressure+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Target Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 166% above its current price, supported by a strong free cash flow yield of 19.6% and an improving narrative score of 81. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's valuation discount and narrative momentum present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.84%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$10,194$10,258$13,427$9,546$12,169$13,174$10,144$9,489$9,456$6,983$7,282$6,225$9,973$8,602$9,802$7,400$7,610$7,977$8,494$8,790

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Target Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Target CorporationConsumer Defensive

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. The company offers food assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items; apparel, accessories, home décor products, electronics, toys, seasonal offerings, food, and other merchandise; and beauty and household essentials. It also provides in-store amenities, such as Target Café, Target Optical, Starbucks, and other food service offerings. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. As of March 09, 2022, the company operated approximately 2,000 stores. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.