Market Pulse50Neutral

Tempus AI, Inc.Opportunity Rank #293(TEM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$49.14

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$49.14
Price
-$1.65
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 103%MOS: -$1.32

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-1.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.14, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -58.95% long-term growth rate and a 12.75% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-1.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.14, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -58.95% long-term growth rate and a 12.75% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$1.65
-103.36% downside
20% margin of safety: -$1.32
Years: 10Growth Rate: -58.95%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-5.52%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
103.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-4.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -5.5% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-65.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 73 (67 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
57 news sentiment+0.8
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Earnings miss-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value more than 100% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's financial performance and valuation could deteriorate further, exacerbating losses for investors.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -58.95%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -65.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$395-$197-$167-$180-$150-$200-$193-$100

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Tempus AI, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Tempus AI, Inc.Healthcare

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company. It engages in providing next generation sequencing diagnostics, polymerase chain reaction profiling, molecular genotyping, and other anatomic and molecular pathology testing to healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, researchers, and other third parties. The company offers Insights, a license library of linked clinical, molecular, and imaging de-identified data, as well as a suite of analytical services to analytic and cloud-and-compute tools to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and Trials that provides clinical trial matching services to pharmaceutical companies. In addition, it operates Next; Algos, a suite of algorithmic tests in oncology; Hub, a desktop and mobile platform for ordering, managing, and receiving tests and patient results; and Lens, a platform for researchers and scientists to find, access, and analyze Tempus data. The company has a strategic collaborations agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos AI, Inc. to develop therapeutic programs in oncology. The company was formerly known as Tempus Labs, Inc. and changed its name to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Tempus AI, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.