Market Pulse44Neutral

Tempus AI, Inc.Opportunity Rank #300(TEM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$47.85

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$47.85
Price
-$4.26
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 109%MOS: -$3.41

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

26/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-4.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $47.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.16% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-4.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $47.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.16% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$4.26
-108.90% downside
20% margin of safety: -$3.41
Years: 10Growth Rate: -42.16%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-5.65%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
108.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -5.6% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
108.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (6th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 9m ago
Sources: 62 (56 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
48 news sentiment+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Macro headwinds-0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

26/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-53.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-36.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-12.9%
Price vs 21 EMA33 · -2.9%
Price vs 50 EMA31 · -4.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA40 · -1.2%
3M RS vs SPY10 · -12.9%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -36.8%
Distance from 52W High0 · -53.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. is currently overvalued with a market price significantly above its estimated fair value, reflecting weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative trend, the company's free cash flow yield remains negative, indicating financial challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital continue to lag its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -42.15%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 115.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$155-$197-$167-$180-$150-$200-$193-$100

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Tempus AI, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Tempus AI, Inc.Healthcare

Tempus AI, Inc. functions as a pioneering health technology enterprise. It specializes in delivering advanced diagnostic services, including cutting-edge genomic sequencing, PCR analysis, molecular genotyping, and various other anatomical and molecular pathology assessments. These vital services are provided to a diverse clientele, including medical practitioners, pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology innovators, scientific researchers, and other collaborating entities. The company offers "Insights," a licensed repository of de-identified clinical, molecular, and imaging data, complemented by a comprehensive suite of analytical and cloud-based computing services, primarily aimed at pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms. Additionally, its "Trials" program facilitates clinical trial matching services specifically for pharmaceutical companies. Tempus AI also manages several other platforms: "Next"; "Algos," a collection of algorithm-driven tests focused on oncology; "Hub," a versatile desktop and mobile application for ordering, managing, and receiving test results for patients; and "Lens," a dedicated portal enabling researchers and scientists to discover, access, and analyze the extensive Tempus dataset. Further demonstrating its commitment to innovation, Tempus AI has formed strategic alliances with AstraZeneca and Pathos AI, Inc. for the co-development of oncological therapeutic initiatives. Established in 2015, the company was initially known as Tempus Labs, Inc. before officially rebranding to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Its operations are based out of Chicago, Illinois.