Market Pulse59Neutral

Tempus AI, Inc.Opportunity Rank #302(TEM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$49.47

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$49.47
Price
-$1.90
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 104%MOS: -$1.52

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

24/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-1.90 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.47, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.97% long-term growth rate and a 12.40% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-1.90 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.47, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.97% long-term growth rate and a 12.40% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$1.90
-103.84% downside
20% margin of safety: -$1.52
Years: 10Growth Rate: -43.97%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-6.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
103.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -6.3% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.6x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
98.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (42nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 65 (57 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
46 news sentiment+1.0
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Macro headwinds-0.2
2 earnings beat+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

24/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-51.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-48.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.0%
Price vs 21 EMA26 · -4.1%
Price vs 50 EMA26 · -5.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA41 · -1.0%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.0%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -48.2%
Distance from 52W High0 · -51.7%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value more than 100% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's financial performance and valuation could deteriorate further if it fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -43.98%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 107.02%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$163-$197-$167-$180-$150-$200-$193-$100

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Tempus AI, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Tempus AI, Inc.Healthcare

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company. It engages in providing next generation sequencing diagnostics, polymerase chain reaction profiling, molecular genotyping, and other anatomic and molecular pathology testing to healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, researchers, and other third parties. The company offers Insights, a license library of linked clinical, molecular, and imaging de-identified data, as well as a suite of analytical services to analytic and cloud-and-compute tools to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and Trials that provides clinical trial matching services to pharmaceutical companies. In addition, it operates Next; Algos, a suite of algorithmic tests in oncology; Hub, a desktop and mobile platform for ordering, managing, and receiving tests and patient results; and Lens, a platform for researchers and scientists to find, access, and analyze Tempus data. The company has a strategic collaborations agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos AI, Inc. to develop therapeutic programs in oncology. The company was formerly known as Tempus Labs, Inc. and changed its name to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Tempus AI, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.