Market Pulse63Bullish

Tempus AI, Inc.Opportunity Rank #268(TEM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$58.23

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$58.23
Price
-$4.26
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 107%MOS: -$3.41

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

66/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-4.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $58.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.16% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is estimated at $-4.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $58.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.16% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$4.26
-107.32% downside
20% margin of safety: -$3.41
Years: 10Growth Rate: -42.16%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-4.91%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
107.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -4.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.4x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
108.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (4th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 46 (41 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+0.2
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

66/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+20.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-43.6%
Price vs 21 EMA75 · +4.5%
Price vs 50 EMA86 · +9.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA83 · +4.9%
3M RS vs SPY97 · +20.8%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -26.0%
Distance from 52W High13 · -43.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. is currently overvalued with a market price significantly above its estimated fair value, reflecting weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative trend, the company's free cash flow yield remains negative, indicating financial challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital continue to lag its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -42.15%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 115.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$155-$197-$167-$180-$150-$200-$193-$100

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Tempus AI, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Tempus AI, Inc.Healthcare

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company in the United States. It offers the Tempus platform, a closed-loop, full-stack, bi-directional integrations between a clinician's desktop and its laboratory diagnostic capabilities, analytics platform, and repository of multimodal data; and Hub, a clinical application for physicians and other healthcare providers for use in the diagnostics product line as an end-to-end application for healthcare providers for NGS tests. The company also provides Lens, a software application for life sciences and advanced precision research; diagnostics services, such as NGS diagnostics, PCR profiling, and other anatomic and molecular pathology tests; and large-panel solid tumor and hematologic testing through multiple assays, with its core clinical assay (xT and xR) offering large panel DNA, RNA full transcriptome, and incidental germline findings through normal blood or saliva analyses. In addition, it provides genetic tests focused on inherited conditions; an nP assay for pharmacogenomic testing for patients with psychiatric conditions, including depression, general anxiety disorder, bipolar disorder, and other relevant diagnoses; Insights, which licenses libraries of linked, de-identified clinical, molecular, and imaging data; Organoids, a tumor derived biological modeling. Further, the company offers Trials for clinical trial matching services; Next, an AI platform; Algos, an algorithm-based diagnostics application. It has Strategic Collaborations with AstraZeneca AB, Pathos AI, Inc., GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, and Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Additionally, it also has a strategic collaboration with Blood Cancer United to develop registry for pediatric acute myeloid leukemia. The company was formerly known as Tempus Labs, Inc. and changed its name to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Tempus AI, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.