Market Pulse44Neutral

Atlassian CorporationOpportunity Rank #76(TEAM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$79.96

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$79.96
Price
$135.07
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 69%MOS: $108.06

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

27/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is estimated at $135.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.00%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is estimated at $135.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.00%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$135.07
68.92% upside
20% margin of safety: $108.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.12%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-3.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
6.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -3.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.4x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 89%Updated: 5m ago
Sources: 100 (79 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 upgrade headlines+1.1
63 news sentiment+0.9
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
4 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

27/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-63.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-61.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-11.0%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.0%
Price vs 50 EMA13 · -8.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA68 · +2.3%
3M RS vs SPY26 · -6.3%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -61.5%
Distance from 52W High0 · -63.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Atlassian Corporation is undervalued with a fair value estimate 56.3% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative return on invested capital compared to its weighted average cost of capital, which may pressure future profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 11.12%5 Year CAGR: 9.46%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$1,294$1,505$1,481$894$892$823$610$513$342$215$164$131$86$62

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Atlassian Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Atlassian CorporationTechnology

Atlassian Corporation, operating globally via its subsidiaries, specializes in creating, distributing, and supporting a diverse range of software solutions. Its extensive product suite features Jira Software and Jira Work Management, comprehensive project management platforms enabling technical and business teams to efficiently plan, organize, monitor, and execute tasks. Confluence serves as a collaborative workspace, centralizing knowledge to advance team efforts, while Trello provides a flexible tool for teams to structure and manage dynamic, rapidly evolving projects. Additionally, Atlassian provides Jira Service Management, an adaptable service desk solution empowering IT, legal, HR, and other service teams to deliver and oversee exceptional service experiences. Another key offering is Jira Align, an enterprise agility platform crafted to assist businesses in navigating dynamic market conditions by prioritizing value generation. Furthermore, its offerings include Bitbucket, an enterprise-grade Git repository management system facilitating professional development teams in collaborating on, managing, and deploying high-quality code. Atlassian Access provides robust, enterprise-wide security and centralized administration, enhancing data governance across its entire suite of cloud products. The portfolio also contains Jira Product, a dedicated tool for prioritizing and mapping out product roadmaps. The company's diverse portfolio extends to Atlas, a teamwork directory; Bamboo, a continuous delivery pipeline; Crowd for single sign-on capabilities; Crucible for collaborative code reviews; Fisheye, a tool to search, track, and visualize code changes; and Compass, a developer experience platform. Other notable products encompass Opsgenie, for on-call and alert management; Sourcetree, a free Git client for Windows and Mac; Statuspage, for real-time status communication to users; and Beacon, an intelligent threat detection system. Established in 2002, Atlassian Corporation maintains its headquarters in Sydney, Australia.

Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq