Market Pulse50Neutral

Atlassian CorporationOpportunity Rank #98(TEAM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$74.41

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$74.41
Price
$143.30
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 93%MOS: $114.64

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

+6 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is estimated at $143.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $74.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.18% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is estimated at $143.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $74.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.18% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$143.30
92.58% upside
20% margin of safety: $114.64
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.18%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.65%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
92.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.6% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
+6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 37m ago
Sources: 152 (132 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
26 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
6 restructuring-0.5
9 layoffs-0.5
87 news sentiment-0.3
Earnings beat-0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Atlassian Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 100% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.0%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's improving narrative and constructive fundamentals suggest potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 11.18%5 Year CAGR: 9.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$1,373$1,505$1,481$894$892$866$610$513$342$215$164$131$86$62

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Atlassian Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Atlassian CorporationTechnology

Atlassian Corporation, through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, licenses, and maintains various software products worldwide. Its product portfolio includes Jira Software and Jira Work Management, a project management system that connects technical and business teams so they can better plan, organize, track and manage their work and projects; Confluence, a connected workspace that organizes knowledge across all teams to move work forward; and Trello, a collaboration and organization product that captures and adds structure to fluid and fast-forming work for teams. The company also offers Jira Service Management, an intuitive and flexible service desk product for creating and managing service experiences for various service team providers, such as IT, legal, and HR teams; and Jira Align, an Atlassian's enterprise agility solution designed to help businesses to adapt and respond dynamic business conditions with a focus on value-creation. In addition, it provides Bitbucket, an enterprise-ready Git solution that enables professional dev teams to manage, collaborate, and deploy quality code; Atlassian Access, an enterprise-wide product for enhanced security and centralized administration that works across every Atlassian cloud product; and Jira Product, a prioritization and road mapping tool. Further, the company's portfolio includes Atlas, a teamwork directory; Bamboo, a continuous delivery pipeline; Crowd, a single sign-on; Crucible, a collaborative code review; Fisheye, a search, track, and visualize code change software; and Compass, a developer experience platform. Additionally, it offers Opsgenie, an on-call and alert management software; Sourcetree, a free git client for windows and mac; Statuspage that communicates real-time status to users; Beacon, an intelligent threat detection software; and Atlassian Access that enhance data security and governance for Atlassian Cloud products. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.