Market Pulse46Neutral

T1 Energy IncOpportunity Rank #282(TE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$6.85

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.85
Price
$3.97
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 42%MOS: $3.18

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

39/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of T1 Energy Inc (TE) is estimated at $3.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -9.14% long-term growth rate and an 11.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of T1 Energy Inc (TE) is estimated at $3.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -9.14% long-term growth rate and an 11.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$3.97
▼ -42.04% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: -9.14%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-9.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
42.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
14.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -9.8% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.6x net debt to FCF
43
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
184.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (27th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 74%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 29 (27 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
25 news sentiment+0.2
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

39/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+52.8%
Price vs 21 EMA-17.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-15.1%
Price vs 21 EMA1 · -17.6%
Price vs 50 EMA4 · -15.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA74 · +3.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +52.8%
6M RS vs SPY15 · -15.4%
Distance from 52W High14 · -43.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
T1 Energy Inc is significantly overvalued with its current price 40.6% above estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score of 44 and a negative ROIC spread versus WACC. Despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 13.2%, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating weak operational efficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could continue to erode shareholder value if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or fundamental score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -9.14%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 196.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
$178$174-$52$100$91-$49-$70$$1,349$1,379$1,191$1,262$1,208$947$631$356$445$455$335$139$477

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates T1 Energy Inc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

T1 Energy IncIndustrials

T1 Energy Inc specializes in the creation and distribution of battery cells, catering to diverse sectors including stationary power storage, electric vehicles, and maritime applications. The company operates globally, with a strong presence across Europe. Furthermore, it undertakes the development and construction of manufacturing plants for lithium-ion batteries. T1 Energy Inc was established in 2018 and is headquartered in Luxembourg.