Market Pulse50Neutral

T1 Energy IncOpportunity Rank #263(TE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$6.84

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.84
Price
$0.32
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 95%MOS: $0.26

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of T1 Energy Inc (TE) is estimated at $0.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.84, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -8.25% long-term growth rate and an 11.34% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of T1 Energy Inc (TE) is estimated at $0.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.84, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -8.25% long-term growth rate and an 11.34% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.32
▼ -95.32% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: -8.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-5.28%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
95.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
9.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -5.3% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
5.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
151.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 59%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 20 (20 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
17 news sentiment+0.1
Legal risk+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
T1 Energy Inc is significantly overvalued with its current price 85.5% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals including a negative ROIC versus WACC spread and elevated leverage. Despite some narrative improvement, the company’s returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company’s elevated leverage at 5.2x net debt to free cash flow, which may constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market downturns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and fundamental score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -8.25%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 154.83%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20242023202220212020201920152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
$99-$52$100$91-$49-$70$$1,349$1,379$1,191$1,262$1,208$947$631$356$445$455$335$139$477$655

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates T1 Energy Inc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

T1 Energy IncIndustrials

T1 Energy Inc engages in the production and sale of battery cells for stationary energy storage, electric mobility, and marine applications in Europe and internationally. The company designs and manufactures lithium-ion based battery cell facilities. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Luxembourg.