Market Pulse50Neutral

Constellation Brands, Inc.Opportunity Rank #162(STZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$152.46

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$152.46
Price
$335.23
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 120%MOS: $268.18

Fundamental Score

51/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $335.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $152.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.90% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.53%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $335.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $152.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.90% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.53%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$335.23
119.88% upside
20% margin of safety: $268.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.90%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.12%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

51/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
119.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.1% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.9x net debt to FCF
3
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (91st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 47 (37 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
Upgrade headlines+0.3
Analyst upgrades+0.2
19 news sentiment+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 129% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score and healthy free cash flow yield of 13.7%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's improving narrative and robust buyback activity suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could undermine long-term value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.90%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.09%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,640$4,366$4,049$3,792$3,732$3,671$3,278$3,133$2,989$2,603$2,305$1,800$1,050$618$853$708$510$636$664$505$568

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria brands. The company offers wine under the 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Victor, New York.

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq