Market Pulse44Neutral

Constellation Brands, Inc.Opportunity Rank #159(STZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$141.51

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$141.51
Price
$331.94
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 135%MOS: $265.55

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $331.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $141.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.42%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $331.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $141.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.42%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$331.94
134.57% upside
20% margin of safety: $265.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
134.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
3.0x net debt to FCF
1
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 40 (21 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Upgrade headlines+0.4
16 news sentiment-0.4
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
18 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.2%
Price vs 21 EMA43 · -1.1%
Price vs 50 EMA34 · -3.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA33 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.2%
6M RS vs SPY26 · -9.6%
Distance from 52W High61 · -19.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Constellation Brands, Inc. is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 135.6% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 14.5%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating underlying profitability challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which may pressure valuation and future returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.09%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.35%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$3,544$4,366$4,049$3,792$3,732$3,671$3,278$3,133$2,989$2,603$2,305$1,800$1,050$618$853$708$510$636$664$505

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Constellation Brands, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, is a global producer, importer, and distributor of a diverse range of beer, wine, and spirits. The company's extensive market presence spans the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. Its prominent beer brands include Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria. Within its wine portfolio, consumers can find labels such as 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader. The spirits division encompasses brands like Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA. The company's products are supplied to various outlets, including wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise establishments, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Founded in 1945, Constellation Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Victor, New York.