Market Pulse59Neutral

Constellation Brands, Inc.Opportunity Rank #152(STZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$150.25

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$150.25
Price
$331.94
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 121%MOS: $265.55

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

-6 vs previous

Trend Score

36/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $331.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $150.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.48%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $331.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $150.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.48%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$331.94
120.93% upside
20% margin of safety: $265.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
120.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
3.0x net debt to FCF
1
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
-6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (11th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 88 (70 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 upgrade headlines-0.0
50 news sentiment-0.0
3 earnings beat-0.0
Guidance cut+0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

36/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-3.9%
Price vs 21 EMA28 · -3.7%
Price vs 50 EMA31 · -3.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA48 · -0.3%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.6%
6M RS vs SPY63 · +4.6%
Distance from 52W High52 · -24.2%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 123% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 13.7%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating operational challenges despite buybacks and strong valuation upside.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains well below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.09%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.35%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$3,544$4,366$4,049$3,792$3,732$3,671$3,278$3,133$2,989$2,603$2,305$1,800$1,050$618$853$708$510$636$664$505

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria brands. The company offers wine under the 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Victor, New York.