Market Pulse63Bullish

Constellation Brands, Inc.Opportunity Rank #149(STZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$134.06

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$134.06
Price
$335.56
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 150%MOS: $268.45

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $335.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $134.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is estimated at $335.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $134.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$335.56
150.31% upside
20% margin of safety: $268.45
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
150.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
2.9x net debt to FCF
2
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 63 (46 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
36 news sentiment+1.2
5 earnings beat+0.8
2 macro headwinds+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Margin pressure+0.1
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA32 · -2.9%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA26 · -3.1%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -28.8%
6M RS vs SPY17 · -14.1%
Distance from 52W High52 · -23.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Constellation Brands, Inc. is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 135.6% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 14.5%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating underlying profitability challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which may pressure valuation and future returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.09%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.33%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$3,553$4,366$4,049$3,792$3,732$3,671$3,278$3,133$2,989$2,603$2,305$1,800$1,050$618$853$708$510$636$664$505

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Rochester, New York.