Market Pulse57Neutral

Seagate Technology Holdings plcOpportunity Rank #198(STX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$878.31

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$878.31
Price
$93.38
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 89%MOS: $74.70

Fundamental Score

43/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

76/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is estimated at $93.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $878.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.04% long-term growth rate and a 12.07% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is estimated at $93.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $878.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.04% long-term growth rate and a 12.07% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$93.38
▼ -89.37% downside
20% margin of safety: $74.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.04%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
18.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

43/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
89.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 18.2% vs WACC 11.0% (1.7x)
83
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
83
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
6.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
57
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (94th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 132 (104 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
91 news sentiment+2.2
5 upgrade headlines+1.2
Earnings beat+0.3
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
2 downgrade headlines+0.0
5 regulatory scrutiny-0.0

Trend Details

76/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+61.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+180.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+7.1%
Price vs 21 EMA33 · -2.8%
Price vs 50 EMA69 · +4.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA91 · +7.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +61.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +180.6%
Distance from 52W High61 · -19.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Seagate Technology Holdings plc is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 88% above estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score despite a strong ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 7.2 points. The company's narrative remains stable but broken, indicating limited positive momentum.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price may not correct downward to reflect its fair value, leading to sustained overvaluation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.04%5 Year CAGR: 8.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,121$1,348$1,172$1,258$2,038$2,124$2,299$2,363$2,479$2,350$2,267$3,394$3,117$3,833$3,898$2,107$2,571$1,456$3,468$1,849$2,465

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Seagate Technology Holdings plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Seagate Technology Holdings plcTechnology

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs. Its consumer-focused segment features external storage devices sold under popular lines such as Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion, as well as the premium LaCie brand. The company's product range further extends to internal desktop and notebook drives, HDDs for digital video recorders (DVRs), and high-performance gaming SSDs. Moreover, Seagate delivers the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform, an innovative solution designed for managing and transferring vast amounts of data. Its clientele primarily consists of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers. Established in 1978, Seagate Technology Holdings plc continues to be a leader in the data storage industry.