Market Pulse50Neutral

Seagate Technology Holdings plcOpportunity Rank #233(STX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$373.98

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$373.98
Price
$63.63
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 83%MOS: $50.90

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is estimated at $63.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $373.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.85% long-term growth rate and a 10.82% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is estimated at $63.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $373.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.85% long-term growth rate and a 10.82% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$63.63
▼ -82.99% downside
20% margin of safety: $50.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.85%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
83.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
16
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.0% vs WACC 7.0% (2.1x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
1.6x net debt to FCF
42
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 140 (119 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
85 news sentiment+1.7
29 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
3 earnings beat+0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 58%
Thesis
Seagate Technology Holdings plc is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 82% above the estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score of 35 despite a strong ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 8 points. The narrative score is moderately supportive but deteriorating, indicating caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's valuation remains disconnected from fundamentals, potentially leading to further price declines if operational performance does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.85%5 Year CAGR: 0.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,148$1,348$1,172$1,258$2,038$2,124$2,299$2,363$2,479$2,350$2,267$3,394$3,117$3,833$3,898$2,107$2,571$1,456$3,468$1,849$2,465

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Seagate Technology Holdings plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Seagate Technology Holdings plcTechnology

Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.