Market Pulse63Bullish

Stagwell Inc.Opportunity Rank #35(STGW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$7.81

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$7.81
Price
$18.82
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 141%MOS: $15.06

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

90/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Stagwell Inc. (STGW) is estimated at $18.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.81, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.73% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Stagwell Inc. (STGW) is estimated at $18.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.81, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.73% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$18.82
140.97% upside
20% margin of safety: $15.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.73%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.09%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
141.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 63%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 18 (16 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
15 news sentiment+0.1
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

90/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+51.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+13.6%
Price vs 21 EMA87 · +8.0%
Price vs 50 EMA93 · +13.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA84 · +5.2%
3M RS vs SPY83 · +9.3%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +51.9%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Stagwell Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 183% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's healthy FCF growth and buyback activity present a compelling investment opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.73%5 Year CAGR: 10.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$375$335$197$123$383$223$152$77$39$109$36$186$160$79$97$28$50$66$72$24$62

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Stagwell Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Stagwell Inc.Communication Services

Stagwell Inc. offers a wide array of specialized services, including digital transformation, data-driven performance media, consumer insights and strategic planning, and creative communications solutions. The company operates through three distinct segments: the Integrated Agencies Network, the Media Network, and the Communications Network. A key part of its business involves designing and building advanced digital platforms and engaging experiences. These solutions are crafted to facilitate the distribution of content, support e-commerce activities, enhance service delivery, and boost sales. This includes developing custom websites, mobile applications, robust back-end infrastructures, and sophisticated content and data management systems. Stagwell also formulates and implements cutting-edge technology and data strategies. Furthermore, the company develops proprietary software, such as cookie-less data platforms for targeted audience engagement, e-commerce tools, and text messaging applications designed to interact with consumers. Beyond digital infrastructure, Stagwell provides comprehensive media buying and planning services. It also furnishes clients with strategic insights and expert guidance to optimize their business content, product strategies, overall communications, and media approaches. The firm's creative and communications offerings encompass strategy development, advertising creation, the execution of live events, cross-platform engagement initiatives, and compelling social media content. Additionally, they provide services in leadership development, social media management, executive visibility, strategic communication, public relations, and public affairs. Stagwell Inc. extends its expertise to include influencer marketing, in-depth brand insights, communications technology, and augmented reality services, particularly assisting in-house marketing teams with innovative, technology-driven solutions. The company's corporate headquarters are located in New York, New York.