Market Pulse57Neutral

Spotify Technology S.A.Opportunity Rank #207(SPOT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$481.06

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$481.06
Price
$416.49
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 13%MOS: $333.19

Fundamental Score

75/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

35/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) is estimated at $416.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $481.06, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.06% long-term growth rate and a 10.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) is estimated at $416.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $481.06, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.06% long-term growth rate and a 10.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$416.49
▼ -13.42% downside
20% margin of safety: $333.19
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.06%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
103.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

75/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
13.4% premium to price
28
FCF Yield
3.8% trailing FCF yield
45
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 103.3% vs WACC 9.0% (11.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
57.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (47th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 87%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 103 (81 News · 22 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
74 news sentiment+0.4
Upgrade headlines+0.1
2 legal risk+0.0
22 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

35/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-34.9%
Price vs 21 EMA55 · +0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA53 · +0.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA48 · -0.2%
3M RS vs SPY9 · -14.2%
6M RS vs SPY11 · -19.1%
Distance from 52W High30 · -34.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 34d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Spotify Technology S.A. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a solid balance sheet position near net cash, supporting its bullish fundamental score of 72. However, the current market price is approximately 20.9% above the estimated fair value, suggesting caution in valuation.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and a fair value discount indicate potential downside risk if operational or market conditions worsen.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful improvement or further deterioration
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 16.55%5 Year CAGR: 49.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
$3,773$3,419$2,647$783$81$509$385$809$536$257$146$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Spotify Technology S.A.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Spotify Technology S.A.Communication Services

Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.