Market Pulse50Neutral

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Opportunity Rank #305(SOFI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$17.15

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$17.15
Price
$1.96
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 89%MOS: $1.57

Fundamental Score

10/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

+5 vs previous

The intrinsic value of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is estimated at $1.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $17.15, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -70.49% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 16.11%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is estimated at $1.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $17.15, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -70.49% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 16.11%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.96
▼ -88.57% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: -70.49%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.1%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

10/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
88.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-6.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
21
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-76.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 54m ago
Sources: 192 (186 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
159 news sentiment+1.8
8 upgrade headlines+0.4
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
5 earnings beat-0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
SoFi Technologies, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 87.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a somewhat supportive narrative score, the deteriorating trend and poor financial metrics suggest avoiding the stock.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration in fundamentals and failure to improve returns above the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -70.49%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -74.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20242023202220212020201920182017
-$1,345-$956-$7,106-$7,152-$1,298-$455-$17$1,037$88

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates SoFi Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Financial Services

SoFi Technologies, Inc. provides digital financial services. It operates through three segments: Lending, Technology Platform, and Financial Services. The company's lending and financial services and products allows its members to borrow, save, spend, invest, and protect their money. It offers student loans; personal loans for debt consolidation and home improvement projects; and home loans. The company also provides cash management, investment, and technology services. In addition, it operates Galileo, a technology platform that offers services to financial and non-financial institutions; and Apex, a technology enabled platform that provides investment custody and clearing brokerage services, as well as Technisys, a cloud-based digital multi-product core banking platform. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq