Market Pulse44Neutral

Snowflake Inc.Opportunity Rank #214(SNOW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$226.59

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$226.59
Price
$80.19
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 65%MOS: $64.15

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

76/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is estimated at $80.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $226.59, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.84% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is estimated at $80.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $226.59, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.84% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$80.19
▼ -64.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $64.15
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-41.5%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
64.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -41.5% vs WACC 11.0% (-3.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
320.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 12m ago
Sources: 247 (200 News · 47 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
162 news sentiment+4.4
25 regulatory scrutiny+1.9
9 earnings beat+0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

76/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+11.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+20.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+13.5%
Price vs 21 EMA59 · +1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA93 · +13.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA98 · +11.9%
3M RS vs SPY97 · +20.1%
6M RS vs SPY34 · -6.1%
Distance from 52W High62 · -19.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Snowflake Inc. is currently overvalued with its price approximately 64.8% above the estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative score but weak fundamentals. The company's returns are significantly trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance despite positive market sentiment.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 55.44%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 320.20%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,304$1,006$917$595$139-$5-$154-$140

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Snowflake Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Snowflake Inc.Technology

Snowflake Inc. delivers a cloud-centric data platform to customers across both the United States and international markets. The company's core offering, known as the Data Cloud, enables users to unify disparate data sources into a singular, reliable foundation. This unified data then facilitates the extraction of crucial business intelligence, the creation of innovative data-driven applications, and secure data sharing. This adaptable platform serves a wide array of organizations, encompassing various sizes and industries. Originating in 2012, the enterprise was initially recognized as Snowflake Computing, Inc., before officially rebranding to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Its principal operations are conducted from Bozeman, Montana.