Market Pulse50Neutral

Snowflake Inc.Opportunity Rank #255(SNOW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$174.20

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$174.20
Price
$91.86
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 47%MOS: $73.49

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is estimated at $91.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $174.20, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is estimated at $91.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $174.20, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$91.86
▼ -47.27% downside
20% margin of safety: $73.49
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-49.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.2% trailing FCF yield
6
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -49.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-4.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
321.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 230 (200 News · 30 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
24 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
118 legal risk+1.3
53 news sentiment+0.9
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
Margin pressure-0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Snowflake Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 44%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive and stable narrative. The company's free cash flow growth is strong, but its return on invested capital is significantly below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could continue to impair value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 55.69%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 321.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,324$1,006$917$595$139-$5-$154-$140

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Snowflake Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Snowflake Inc.Technology

Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform offers Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data-driven applications, and share data. Its platform is used by various organizations of sizes in a range of industries. The company was formerly known as Snowflake Computing, Inc. and changed its name to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Snowflake Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Bozeman, Montana.