Market Pulse44Neutral

Sandisk CorporationOpportunity Rank #239(SNDK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,354.82

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,354.82
Price
$467.28
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 66%MOS: $373.82

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

76/100
Strong

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is estimated at $467.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,354.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.97% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.22%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is estimated at $467.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,354.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.97% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.22%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$467.28
▼ -65.51% downside
20% margin of safety: $373.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.97%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
65.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
10
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.7x)
83
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

76/100
Strong
+5 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (1st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 221 (200 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
176 news sentiment+2.8
22 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Legal risk-0.1
Macro headwinds+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+241.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+41.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-22.6%
Price vs 21 EMA0 · -22.6%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -17.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA88 · +6.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +41.4%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +241.7%
Distance from 52W High16 · -42.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 60%
Thesis
Sandisk Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price 71.5% above estimated fair value despite a strong narrative score and ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 5 percentage points. Weak fundamentals and lack of free cash flow growth suggest caution in investment.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's fundamentals may not improve sufficiently to justify the current high valuation, leading to potential price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend or direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 507.55%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022
$4,818$288-$143-$494$1,561

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Sandisk Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Sandisk CorporationTechnology

SanDisk Corporation specializes in designing, manufacturing, and supplying storage solutions and devices leveraging advanced NAND flash technology. Its diverse product line features solid-state drives (SSDs), embedded memory solutions, removable memory cards, universal serial bus (USB) devices, and underlying wafers and components. Founded on June 1, 1988, the company maintains its principal executive offices in Milpitas, California.