Market Pulse50Neutral

Sandisk CorporationOpportunity Rank #240(SNDK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$618.82

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$618.82
Price
$118.75
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 81%MOS: $95.00

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is estimated at $118.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $618.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.00% long-term growth rate and a 12.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is estimated at $118.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $618.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.00% long-term growth rate and a 12.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$118.75
▼ -80.81% downside
20% margin of safety: $95.00
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.00%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.89%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
80.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.9% vs WACC 7.0% (1.3x)
64
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (50th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 214 (200 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
157 news sentiment+4.0
37 regulatory scrutiny+2.5
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
3 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Sandisk Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 80% above the estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score of 34 and a thin free cash flow yield of 2.0%. Despite a stable but weak narrative score of 80, the company's return on invested capital modestly exceeds its cost of capital by 1.89%.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's return on invested capital may fall below its cost of capital in upcoming quarters, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.00%5 Year CAGR: 2.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222022201620142013201220122011201020082007200620062005200320022001
$1,805$288-$143-$494$1,561$1,561$1,469$1,956$2,085$1,347$1,022$1,560$559$272$940$615$775$353$327$124-$46

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Sandisk Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Sandisk CorporationTechnology

SanDisk Corp. engages in the development, manufacture, and provision of storage devices and solutions on NAND flash technology. Its products include solid state drives. embedded products, removable cards, universal series bus, and wafers and components. The company was founded on June 1, 1988 and is headquartered in Milipitas, CA.