Market Pulse44Neutral

NuScale Power CorporationOpportunity Rank #308(SMR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$11.23

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$11.23
Price
$3.53
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 69%MOS: $2.82

Fundamental Score

10/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

27/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is estimated at $3.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -67.06% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is estimated at $3.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -67.06% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$3.53
▼ -68.57% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: -67.06%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-110.52%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

10/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-22.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -110.5% vs WACC 7.0% (-15.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
54
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-73.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
-2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (78th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 108 (105 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
90 news sentiment+1.0
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Macro headwinds+0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

27/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-79.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.4%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.5%
Price vs 21 EMA61 · +1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA35 · -3.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA16 · -4.9%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.5%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.4%
Distance from 52W High0 · -79.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
NuScale Power Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price 59.5% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially below its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and deteriorating business prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is continued financial deterioration as indicated by a highly negative ROIC versus WACC spread and worsening free cash flow metrics.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score and trend
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -67.06%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -72.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$750-$459-$109-$182-$146-$97-$44-$65

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NuScale Power Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NuScale Power CorporationUtilities

NuScale Power Corporation specializes in the development and sale of modular light water reactor nuclear power facilities. These innovative plants are designed to provide energy for a wide array of applications, including the generation of electricity, district heating systems, water desalination, hydrogen production, and various industrial heat processes. Key products in their portfolio include the NuScale Power Module, an individual water reactor unit capable of producing 77 megawatts of electricity (MWe). They also offer the VOYGR-12 power plant, which delivers a substantial 924 MWe, along with four-module VOYGR-4 and six-module VOYGR-6 configurations. Beyond these standard offerings, NuScale provides other adaptable configurations tailored to meet specific customer demands. Established in 2007, the company maintains its headquarters in Portland, Oregon, and operates as a subsidiary of Fluor Enterprises, Inc.