Market Pulse50Neutral

Summit Therapeutics Inc.Opportunity Rank #312(SMMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$15.60

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$15.60
Price
$0.62
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 96%MOS: $0.50

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) is estimated at $0.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.60, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -53.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) is estimated at $0.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.60, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -53.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.62
▼ -96.03% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: -53.12%
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Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
96.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-2.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
24
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-67.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (8th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 63%Updated: 47m ago
Sources: 18 (14 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Analyst downgrades-0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Legal risk+0.0
11 news sentiment+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Summit Therapeutics Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value nearly 96% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's financial performance and valuation may not improve, leading to further downside in share price.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -53.12%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -66.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
-$322-$322-$142-$77-$41-$72-$48-$35-$15-$20$15-$24-$17-$10-$5-$4-$4-$3-$13-$12-$3

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Summit Therapeutics Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Summit Therapeutics Inc.Healthcare

Summit Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat infectious diseases in the United States and Latin America. It conducts clinical programs focusing on Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). The company's lead product candidate is ridinilazole, an orally administered small molecule antibiotic that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of CDI. It also offers SMT-738, for combating multidrug resistant infections primarily carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections; and DDS-04 series for the potential treatment of infections caused by the Enterobacteriaceae. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.