Market Pulse46Neutral

The Sherwin-Williams CompanyOpportunity Rank #228(SHW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$333.99

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$333.99
Price
$297.04
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $237.63

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

48/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is estimated at $297.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $333.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is estimated at $297.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $333.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$297.04
-11.06% downside
20% margin of safety: $237.63
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.1% premium to price
32
FCF Yield
5.3% trailing FCF yield
83
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
12
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (15th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 73%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 28 (18 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
17 news sentiment+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

48/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-11.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA55 · +0.7%
Price vs 50 EMA63 · +2.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.9%
3M RS vs SPY13 · -11.6%
6M RS vs SPY28 · -8.7%
Distance from 52W High78 · -11.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 62%
Thesis
The Sherwin-Williams Company currently exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield and valuation near fair value. Patience is warranted as the stock price and operational metrics show limited upside in the near term.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.43%5 Year CAGR: 10.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,398$4,249$4,223$4,410$2,564$2,617$3,712$2,650$2,195$2,107$1,548$1,682$1,282$1,250$1,045$890$832$951$993$1,040$1,026

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Sherwin-Williams Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Sherwin-Williams CompanyBasic Materials

The Sherwin-Williams Company engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of paint, coatings, and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers. The company operates through three segments: Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. The Paint Stores Group segment offers architectural paint and coatings; protective and marine products; and OEM product finishes and related products for architectural and industrial paint contractors, and do-it-yourself homeowners under the Sherwin-Williams brand. The Consumer Brands Group segment supplies a portfolio of branded and private-label architectural paints, stains, varnishes, industrial products, wood finishes products, wood preservatives, applicators, corrosion inhibitors, aerosols, caulks, and adhesives to retailers, including home centers and hardware stores, and dedicated dealers and distributors. The Performance Coatings Group segment develops and sells industrial coatings for wood finishing and general industrial applications; automotive refinish products; protective and marine coatings; coil coatings; packaging coatings; and performance-based resins and colorants. This segment serves retailers, dealers, jobbers, licensees, and other third-party distributors. The company operates in North America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, Asia, and Australia. The Sherwin-Williams Company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.