Market Pulse44Neutral

The Sherwin-Williams CompanyOpportunity Rank #217(SHW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$316.90

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$316.90
Price
$294.63
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 7%MOS: $235.70

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

40/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is estimated at $294.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $316.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is estimated at $294.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $316.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$294.63
-7.03% downside
20% margin of safety: $235.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
7.0% premium to price
38
FCF Yield
5.6% trailing FCF yield
91
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
12
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 14m ago
Sources: 40 (30 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
27 news sentiment+0.3
2 analyst downgrades-0.0
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

40/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-10.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-15.5%
Price vs 21 EMA59 · +1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA52 · +0.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA41 · -1.1%
3M RS vs SPY15 · -10.4%
6M RS vs SPY17 · -14.2%
Distance from 52W High69 · -15.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 62%
Thesis
The Sherwin-Williams Company currently exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield and valuation near fair value. Patience is warranted as the stock price and operational metrics show limited upside in the near term.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.43%5 Year CAGR: 10.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,398$4,249$4,223$4,410$2,564$2,617$3,712$2,650$2,195$2,107$1,548$1,682$1,282$1,250$1,045$890$832$951$993$1,040$1,026

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Sherwin-Williams Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Sherwin-Williams CompanyBasic Materials

Cleveland, Ohio-based The Sherwin-Williams Company, established in 1866, is a prominent global player in the development, manufacturing, distribution, and sale of paints, coatings, and related merchandise. Its extensive customer base encompasses professionals, industrial enterprises, commercial clients, and individual consumers. The company's operations are organized into three key segments: 1. The Americas Group: This division provides architectural paints and coatings, protective and marine products, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) finishes, catering to architectural and industrial painting contractors, as well as do-it-yourself homeowners. 2. Consumer Brands Group: This segment supplies a broad portfolio of both branded and private-label offerings, including architectural paints, stains, varnishes, wood finishes, and various related items like applicators, adhesives, and aerosols, to retailers and distributors. 3. Performance Coatings Group: Focused on specialized applications, this group develops and sells industrial coatings for wood finishing and general industrial use, automotive refinish products, high-performance protective and marine coatings, coil and packaging coatings, and advanced resins and colorants. Sherwin-Williams reaches its global clientele through its approximately 5,000 company-operated stores and facilities (as of February 17, 2022), alongside direct sales personnel and external representatives. The company maintains a significant international footprint, operating across North and South America, the Caribbean, Europe, Asia, and Australia.

The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq