SHOP

$111.24

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 10.00% trendline growth.
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$18.69

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$14.95
-86.56% downside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
4.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
41
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
86.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.6% vs WACC 7.0% (0.7x)
33
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
71.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.
Narrative Score
57
Weak
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 days-6 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: Low (0th pct)
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 140 (News 137 · Analyst 3)
Drivers
4 upgrade headlines+0.5
93 news sentiment+0.2
37 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E81.2
Profit Margin16.7%
Owner Earnings$1.83b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity0.20
Current Ratio3.80
PEG-3.340
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
$4$6$22$37$40$32$51$133$467$586-$86$983$1,951
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Shopify Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Shopify Inc.Technology

Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, new buyers and build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, manage cash, payments and transactions, and access financing. It also sells custom themes and apps, and registration of domain names; and merchant solutions, which include accepting payments, shipping and fulfillment, and securing working capital. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.