Market Pulse44Neutral

Shopify Inc.Opportunity Rank #296(SHOP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$107.98

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$107.98
Price
$30.04
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $24.03

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is estimated at $30.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 12.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is estimated at $30.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 12.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$30.04
▼ -72.18% downside
20% margin of safety: $24.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.55%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.6% vs WACC 7.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
36.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
-2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (6th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 127 (116 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
100 news sentiment+0.5
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Layoffs-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
5 earnings beat+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-44.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-39.7%
Price vs 21 EMA36 · -2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA27 · -4.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA29 · -2.6%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.3%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -44.1%
Distance from 52W High21 · -39.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Shopify Inc. is currently overvalued with its price trading approximately 71% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score and improving trend, the company's free cash flow yield remains thin at 1.6%.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between Shopify's ROIC and WACC, which could continue to pressure returns below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 13.00%5 Year CAGR: 30.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$2,182$2,059$1,635$983-$86$586$467$133$51$32$40$37$22$6$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Shopify Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Shopify Inc.Technology

Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces. Beyond sales, the platform streamlines crucial business operations such as product and inventory management, order and payment processing, fulfillment and shipping logistics, attracting new customers and fostering client relationships, product sourcing, analytical reporting, financial administration encompassing cash, payments, and transactions, and facilitating access to working capital. Additionally, Shopify offers supplementary services like the sale of custom website themes and applications, alongside domain name registration. Its merchant-focused solutions also cover payment acceptance, efficient shipping and order fulfillment, and aid in securing necessary operating funds. Founded in 2004 under the initial name Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc., the company officially rebranded to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Its global headquarters are located in Ottawa, Canada.