Market Pulse50Neutral

Shopify Inc.Opportunity Rank #231(SHOP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$121.10

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$121.10
Price
$28.67
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 76%MOS: $22.94

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

-5 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is estimated at $28.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $121.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and a 12.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is estimated at $28.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $121.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and a 12.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$28.67
▼ -76.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $22.94
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
76.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.6x)
30
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
34.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
-5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 175 (156 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
110 news sentiment+1.5
34 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
5 upgrade headlines+0.1
4 earnings miss+0.0
Layoffs-0.0
3 analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Shopify Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 75% relative to its estimated fair value, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a thin free cash flow yield of 1.3%. Despite a supportive and improving narrative score, the fundamental outlook remains bearish due to negative ROIC versus WACC spread.
Key Risk
The key risk is that Shopify fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which would undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 12.95%5 Year CAGR: 28.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$2,067$2,059$1,635$983-$86$586$467$133$51$32$40$37$22$6$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Shopify Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Shopify Inc.Technology

Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, new buyers and build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, manage cash, payments and transactions, and access financing. It also sells custom themes and apps, and registration of domain names; and merchant solutions, which include accepting payments, shipping and fulfillment, and securing working capital. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.