Market Pulse59Neutral

Shopify Inc.Opportunity Rank #285(SHOP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$111.74

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$111.74
Price
$29.86
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 73%MOS: $23.89

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

16/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is estimated at $29.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $111.74, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 12.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is estimated at $29.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $111.74, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 12.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$29.86
▼ -73.28% downside
20% margin of safety: $23.89
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.48%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.5% vs WACC 7.0% (0.6x)
32
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
36.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (31st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 150 (122 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
93 news sentiment+0.8
22 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
5 earnings beat+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
26 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

16/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-41.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-10.1%
Price vs 21 EMA-7.4%
Price vs 21 EMA13 · -7.4%
Price vs 50 EMA11 · -10.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA27 · -2.9%
3M RS vs SPY20 · -8.3%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -41.1%
Distance from 52W High23 · -38.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Shopify Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 72% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score, the company's free cash flow yield is thin, indicating limited cash generation relative to its valuation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration in returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor if the stock price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative score trend for meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 13.00%5 Year CAGR: 29.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$2,175$2,059$1,635$983-$86$586$467$133$51$32$40$37$22$6$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Shopify Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Shopify Inc.Technology

Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, new buyers and build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, manage cash, payments and transactions, and access financing. It also sells custom themes and apps, and registration of domain names; and merchant solutions, which include accepting payments, shipping and fulfillment, and securing working capital. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.