Market Pulse46Neutral

Sweetgreen, Inc.Opportunity Rank #73(SG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$8.36

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$8.36
Price
$19.87
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 138%MOS: $15.90

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

64/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) is estimated at $19.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.36, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.66% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) is estimated at $19.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.36, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.66% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$19.87
▲ 137.68% upside
20% margin of safety: $15.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.66%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
137.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.3% vs WACC 9.0% (-0.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
36
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
161.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (86th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 76%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 31 (24 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 news sentiment+0.3
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

64/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+38.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-48.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+4.0%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA65 · +3.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.0%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +38.0%
6M RS vs SPY64 · +5.2%
Distance from 52W High3 · -48.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Sweetgreen, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 132.6% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and stable narrative suggest potential for upside.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 27.16%5 Year CAGR: 25.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$87$94$136$122$59$28-$33$7

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Sweetgreen, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Sweetgreen, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Sweetgreen, Inc. operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants that focus on serving nutritious meals prepared with fresh, seasonal, and organic ingredients. Beyond the in-restaurant dining experience, the company allows customers to place orders digitally through its website and mobile application. Additionally, it offers gift cards that can be redeemed at any of its locations. As of September 26, 2021, Sweetgreen's footprint included 140 establishments spread across 13 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The company was established in 2006 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Los Angeles, California.