Market Pulse50Neutral

Sweetgreen, Inc.Opportunity Rank #146(SG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$5.23

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.23
Price
$21.57
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 312%MOS: $17.26

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

46/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) is estimated at $21.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.43% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) is estimated at $21.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.43% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$21.57
▲ 312.43% upside
20% margin of safety: $17.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-7.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
312.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -7.3% vs WACC 9.0% (-0.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
9
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
165.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

46/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (41st pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 43 (34 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
30 news sentiment-0.4
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Sweetgreen, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 330% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and stable narrative trend suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently insufficient to cover its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.09%5 Year CAGR: 28.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$98$94$136$122$59$28-$33$7

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Sweetgreen, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Sweetgreen, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Sweetgreen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates fast-casual restaurants serving healthy foods prepared from seasonal and organic ingredients. The company also accepts orders through its online and mobile ordering platforms, as well as sells gift cards that can be redeemed in its restaurants. As of September 26, 2021, it owned and operated 140 restaurants in 13 states and Washington, D.C. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.