Market Pulse44Neutral

Serve Robotics Inc.Opportunity Rank #327(SERV) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$6.80

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.80
Price
$1.66
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 76%MOS: $1.33

Fundamental Score

5/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

7/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) is estimated at $1.66 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.80, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -52.77% long-term growth rate and an 11.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) is estimated at $1.66 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.80, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -52.77% long-term growth rate and an 11.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.66
▼ -75.59% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.33
Years: 10Growth Rate: -52.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-39.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

5/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
75.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-16.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -39.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-5.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 74%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 27 (25 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 news sentiment+0.3
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

7/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-61.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-38.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.7%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.2%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -18.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA5 · -8.4%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -38.0%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.7%
Distance from 52W High0 · -61.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Serve Robotics Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price 72.8% above its estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. Despite a stable and improving narrative score, the company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's deeply negative return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which may continue to erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -52.77%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -56.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$76-$43-$11-$16-$18-$11

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Serve Robotics Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Serve Robotics Inc.Industrials

Serve Robotics Inc. specializes in the development, deployment, and operation of autonomous, environmentally conscious robots. These advanced robotic systems are designed to provide efficient food delivery services to people in public spaces, exclusively within the United States. The company, which builds its own self-navigating delivery units, was established in 2017. Its headquarters are situated in Redwood City, California. Notably, the entity operated under the name Patricia Acquisition Corp. until July 2023, when it officially rebranded as Serve Robotics Inc.