Market Pulse59Neutral

Serve Robotics Inc.Opportunity Rank #320(SERV) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$9.09

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.09
Price
$1.68
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 82%MOS: $1.34

Fundamental Score

5/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

48/100
Weak

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) is estimated at $1.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -52.77% long-term growth rate and a 12.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) is estimated at $1.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -52.77% long-term growth rate and a 12.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.68
▼ -81.52% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.34
Years: 10Growth Rate: -52.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-32.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

5/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
81.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-13.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -32.8% vs WACC 7.0% (-4.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

48/100
Weak
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (1st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 43 (42 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment-0.2
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-50.4%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.8%
Price vs 21 EMA22 · -5.0%
Price vs 50 EMA19 · -7.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -24.7%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -33.8%
Distance from 52W High0 · -50.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Serve Robotics Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price nearly 79% above its estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially below its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and operational inefficiency.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC and persistent negative free cash flow could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained periods.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the company’s narrative score and trend.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -52.77%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -56.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$76-$43-$11-$16-$18-$11

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Serve Robotics Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Serve Robotics Inc.Industrials

Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public spaces with food delivery in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Patricia Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Serve Robotics Inc. in July 2023. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is based in Redwood City, California.