Market Pulse50Neutral

Serve Robotics Inc.Opportunity Rank #327(SERV) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$9.43

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.43
Price
$2.63
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $2.10

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) is estimated at $2.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.60% long-term growth rate and a 12.12% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) is estimated at $2.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.60% long-term growth rate and a 12.12% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.63
▼ -72.11% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.60%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-53.85%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-7.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -53.8% vs WACC 7.0% (-7.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
5.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 84%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 39 (37 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
35 news sentiment+0.7
Earnings beat+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Serve Robotics Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 70.8% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits elevated leverage and deteriorating performance trends, making it unattractive for investment at present.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in fundamentals or failure to improve returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could further impair value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -50.29%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$43-$43-$11-$16-$18-$11

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Serve Robotics Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Serve Robotics Inc.Industrials

Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public spaces with food delivery in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Patricia Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Serve Robotics Inc. in July 2023. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is based in Redwood City, California.