Market Pulse50Neutral

Starbucks CorporationOpportunity Rank #183(SBUX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$93.83

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$93.83
Price
$83.51
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $66.81

Fundamental Score

56/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is estimated at $83.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.62% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is estimated at $83.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.62% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$83.51
▼ -11.00% downside
20% margin of safety: $66.81
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.62%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

56/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.0% premium to price
32
FCF Yield
5.8% trailing FCF yield
95
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.9% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
50
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (4th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 206 (185 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
36 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
4 downgrade headlines-0.4
135 news sentiment-0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.2
3 earnings miss+0.0
2 margin pressure+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Starbucks Corporation exhibits constructive fundamentals with a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.8%, though its valuation is slightly above fair value, suggesting patience is warranted. The company's return on invested capital is currently below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating cautious monitoring is needed.
Key Risk
The key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend combined with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure future returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.62%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,209$7,053$8,873$8,342$6,239$7,459$3,081$6,854$13,914$5,694$6,015$5,053$1,769$4,060$2,576$2,144$2,146$1,835$2,243$2,412$1,903

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Starbucks Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Starbucks CorporationConsumer Cyclical

Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq