Market Pulse59Neutral

Starbucks CorporationOpportunity Rank #123(SBUX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$104.26

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$104.26
Price
$86.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 17%MOS: $69.29

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

72/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is estimated at $86.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $104.26, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is estimated at $86.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $104.26, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$86.61
▼ -16.93% downside
20% margin of safety: $69.29
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.43%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
16.9% premium to price
22
FCF Yield
5.0% trailing FCF yield
76
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.4% vs WACC 7.0% (1.1x)
53
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
23
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
14.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
96
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (87th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 194 (175 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
128 news sentiment+5.4
35 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
2 earnings beat+0.3
4 upgrade headlines+0.2
Margin pressure+0.1
Restructuring-0.1

Trend Details

72/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-1.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.7%
Price vs 50 EMA+6.6%
Price vs 21 EMA70 · +3.4%
Price vs 50 EMA78 · +6.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA74 · +3.1%
3M RS vs SPY45 · -1.3%
6M RS vs SPY88 · +17.7%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Starbucks Corporation shares appear fully priced relative to the base-case fair value despite a strong narrative score and healthy free cash flow yield of 5.0%. The company shows a slight positive spread of ROIC over WACC, indicating modest value creation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may decline if the valuation adjusts downward due to limited upside from current levels.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.33%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,966$7,053$8,873$8,342$6,239$7,459$3,081$6,854$13,914$5,694$6,015$5,053$1,769$4,060$2,576$2,144$2,146$1,835$2,243$2,412$1,903

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Starbucks Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Starbucks CorporationConsumer Cyclical

Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.