Market Pulse46Neutral

Starbucks CorporationOpportunity Rank #230(SBUX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$106.01

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$106.01
Price
$86.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 18%MOS: $69.29

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

+4 vs previous

Trend Score

67/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is estimated at $86.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.01, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is estimated at $86.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.01, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$86.61
▼ -18.30% downside
20% margin of safety: $69.29
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.66%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.3% premium to price
19
FCF Yield
4.9% trailing FCF yield
73
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.1x)
55
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
23
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
14.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
96
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
+4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (42nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 115 (99 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
83 news sentiment+1.0
Margin pressure+0.1
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
Legal risk-0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
8 layoffs-0.0

Trend Details

67/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+12.8%
Price vs 50 EMA+4.4%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.0%
Price vs 50 EMA70 · +4.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.4%
3M RS vs SPY43 · -1.7%
6M RS vs SPY81 · +12.8%
Distance from 52W High98 · -0.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Starbucks Corporation exhibits constructive fundamentals with a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.3%, though its valuation is slightly above fair value, suggesting a cautious approach. The company's ROIC modestly exceeds its WACC, indicating some value creation but limited margin for error.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price may not decline to a sufficient discount to fair value, limiting upside potential and warranting patience.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend impacting the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.33%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,966$7,053$8,873$8,342$6,239$7,459$3,081$6,854$13,914$5,694$6,015$5,053$1,769$4,060$2,576$2,144$2,146$1,835$2,243$2,412$1,903

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Starbucks Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Starbucks CorporationConsumer Cyclical

Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International markets, and Channel Development. The company's retail outlets offer a broad assortment of coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve options, and ready-to-drink products. Customers can also find a variety of food items, including pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch selections. Furthermore, Starbucks extends its brand reach by licensing its trademarks to independently operated stores, grocery retailers, and foodservice accounts. Products are sold under well-known labels such as Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi. As of October 3, 2021, Starbucks had a significant global presence, operating 16,826 company-owned and licensed stores across North America, in addition to 17,007 similar locations internationally. The company, established in 1971, is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.